Economists at S&P Global Ratings said that against the background of the negative impact of the war in Ukraine, the protracted coronavirus pandemic and aggressive tightening of monetary policy by world Central banks, the outlook for emerging market economies has deteriorated, and their real GDP is now expected to grow by 3.8% in 2023 (previous forecast: +4.1%). As for 2024 and 2025, growth forecasts are almost unchanged, averaging +4.3%.
"The revision of the overall forecast for 2023 is associated with expectations of weaker growth in all emerging markets, with the exception of China and Saudi Arabia, and most of these economies may show GDP growth below their long-term trend rates," S&P Global Ratings said.
"Although there are signs that inflation may soon begin to decline, it will still remain above the target levels of Central banks in many emerging market economies, which will require maintaining restrictive monetary policy," the economists said.