The Conference Board reported on Monday its employment trends index
(ETI) for the U.S. decreased to 117.63 in July from a downwardly revised 118.71 (from
119.38) in June.
According to the report, last month’s fall in the ETI was due to declines
in 6 of 8 components, led by the Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance.
Commenting on the latest data, Frank Steemers, Senior Economist at The
Conference Board, said, that despite the fact the U.S. labor market remains
robust, the recent behavior of the ETI signals that slower job gains should be
expected over the next several months. In his opinion, this would bring the U.S.
labor market in line with the rest of the economy, where economic activity has
already been slowing. Steemers also added that it is increasingly likely that
the U.S. economy will slip into recession by year-end or early 2023, with the
Fed anticipated to continue hiking interest rates sharply over the coming months.