Bitcoin
(BTC) has added 10% to $43,700 since the beginning of the week. The major cryptocurrency
rose by 16% in December and 62% since October 16, when the spot Bitcoin-ETC
fueled rally started. Bitcoin prices surged an amazing 166% since the beginning
of 2023, which is the highest score since 2020.
Crypto
investors are delighted with such a performance. Many believe that BTC prices
would hit their all-time highs at $68,990 at least in 2024. This is another 56-57%
up from the current price levels. Reckless crypto enthusiasts believe that BTC
prices would hit $100,000 per coin mark next year. This optimism is heated by
the old story of spot Bitcoin-ETF and Ethereum-ETF approval in early January
next year, and BTC halving next April. The Federal Reserve (Fed) seem to be
over with its interest rates hikes and may instead cut its Fund rates next
spring. These are undisputable facts that point crypto prices to the upside.
This inflates
bets for the crypto rally sky high. Open interest in Bitcoin futures on CME surged
by 43% during last month to the levels of October 2021. Robinhood, a retail crypto
traders’ favorite, saw a 75% rise in trading volumes in November. ETF ProShares
Bitcoin Strategy (BITO) saw huge weekly capital inflows a month ago, a record
of the entire 2023. Everybody bet on Bitcoin rally. And this is most frightening.
It has gone too far. A correlation between Bitcoin and MSCI World Index of
global stocks dropped to 0.18 from 0.60, a correlation between BTC and gold
prices dropped to almost zero from 0.36.
Bitcoin has
already crashed the resistance at $40,000 per coin and is attempting to break
through the resistance at $45,000. Further upside moves are really questionable,
as it is probably the time to leave gridlocked road. Any small accident could
block the upside path making investors suffer with their long trades.
Technically,
BTC prices may reach $49,000-50,000 by mid-December. But, afterwards Bitcoin
prices would enter a dangerous correction zone with a possible prices
correction to $35,000 or even $20,000 per coin.