Analytické recenze forexového trhu

26.05.2023 05:05

Weekly Summary: Debt Ceiling Deal is Nearing, while Risks Are Up

Debt ceiling negotiations continue to trouble investors. Although Republicans and Democrats have $70 billion in spending to discuss, it could be considered rather positive news compared to $4.5 trillion cuts demanded by the GOP side at the start of the talks. It may also mean that the deal is very close and may be announced over the weekend. This may sound like very good news, but investors still consider a technical default as a possible. U.S. Treasuries yield continue to rise. One month bond yield surged above 6.0%, which is the record for the last 20 years.

24.05.2023 06:05

Crypto Week: Debt Troubles are No Match for Bitcoin

Anton Bykov

Financial markets are seen to be stoned as the debt ceiling drama continues to hit the stage. Even though such debt troubles regularly emerge and are always resolved in the end without any serious shocks felt, this issue is still miraculously causing investors to worry. Republicans and Democrats must come to a compromise to get the bill to Congress during the week between June 1-8. Indeed, sometimes the deadline is missed, like in 2011, but even then the market did not collapse. This drama led the prices of stocks and cryptos to a flatten as volatility decreased.

22.05.2023 02:05

Weekly Focus: Debt Ceiling Talks Crunch, FOMC Minutes, and Core Inflation

Alexander Boltyan

The unexpected debt ceiling talks crunch that started last Friday continue this week. For no apparent reasons both Democrats and Republicans accused each other of violating initial bargaining points towards unacceptable levels. Exactly how this is possible remains unknown. Although, this could have been the original plan, while both sides were playing a game of giveaway just to win some more time to get their hands on a real bargain, U.S. President Joe Biden and the House speaker Kevin McCarthy have to step in another meeting that is scheduled for Monday.

19.05.2023 01:05

Weekly Summary: S&P 500 is Stretching Up Towards the 4270 Mark

Anton Bykov

This hectic week is ending on a positive note as the S&P 500 broad market index is adding 2.0% to 4203 points. This height is not the limit for the index as resistance levels moved up to 4250-4270 points. So, the index may add another 1.5% over the coming days. Investors are likely to receive some good news about the debt ceiling talks over the weekend as U.S. President Joe Biden from the Democrats’ side and House speaker, Kevin McCarthy, are likely to deliver this to the public. However, it would be wise to prepare for any surprises.

17.05.2023 01:05

Crypto Week: Investors Queuing in ETH 2.0, New Troubles for FTX

Anton Bykov

VanEck Investment Management presented three scenarios for the Ethereum perspectives by 2023. The primary scenario suggests that Ethereum prices could surge to $11,849 per coin. According to the Bearish scenario VanEck sees ETH prices going down to the bottom of $343, while the Bullish scenario assumes prices may sky rocket to $51,006 per coin by the end of this decade. This is a rather strange divergence between scenarios that highlights that even large investment houses don’t understand where the price will really go.

15.05.2023 07:05

Weekly Focus: U.S. Debt Ceiling Talks and Retail Sales

Anton Bykov

The most important event of the week will be on Tuesday when U.S. President Joe Biden from the Democrats’ side is scheduled to meet the House speaker, Kevin McCarthy, to talk about lifting the debt ceiling. The S&P 500 broad market index will enter a reversal zone that will last until the end of May. Stock markets are prepared for a negative scenario in the talks, as Democrats must find a swift compromise that could be considered as an invitation for a furious political standoff this fall between GOP and Jacksonians.

12.05.2023 05:05

Weekly Summary: Markets Unhappy Despite Inflation Slowdown

Alexander Boltyan

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) edged lower to 4.9% year-on-year, beating the expected 5.0%. The Producer Price Index (PPI) went even further down to 2.3% year-on-year from the previous 2.7%. Supposedly, that should be more than enough to push stock indexes up, as slowing down inflation confirms a possible end of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary tightening cycle. But the S&P 500 broad market index is mostly unchanged, close to 4140 points. There are several reasons for this, including debt ceiling debates deadlock and the still evolving banking sector troubles.

10.05.2023 10:05

Crypto Week: Meme Coins Are Flagging a Bearish Market

Anton Bykov

Bitcoin prices bounced off the level of $30,000 per coin to drop to $22,000. A recent breakthrough of the $30,000 level could be considered false if prices dive below $27,000. These fluctuations are happening without any major upside reasons for the market, meaning that cryptocurrencies are likely to return into correction mode to test new lows. Meme coins, that are usually depicted from comical or animated memes and have little or no intrinsic value, are rallying to two-year highs. Coins like Pepe coin have easily crossed the $1 billion market cap threshold terrifying investors.

05.05.2023 02:05

Weekly Summary: Non-Farm Payrolls May Justify Fed’s Cautious Move

Anton Bykov

Markets are struggling ahead of the April labour market data publication. The S&P 500 broad market index fell by 2.3% to 4077 points despite quite positive results of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB) meetings this week. Both regulators raised their interest rates by 0.25 percentage points, which were expected by investors. These decisions were very inspiring as both the Fed and ECB signaled a possible pause after the most recent rise in rates.

03.05.2023 12:05

Crypto Week: The Fed is Gliding over Thin Ice

Anton Bykov

The Crypto market situation has not changed much over the last week after a brief spike of Bitcoin prices over $30,000 per coin has been seen to be a false upside move. BTC prices are expected to continue down to $22,000 once as they cross the $27,000 support level. Altcoins will follow. Trading volumes in April dropped dramatically after elevated trading activity during the first three months of 2023. Thus, any large trades may affect the market severely. The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) has rolled back amid new banking crisis worries and fears of a possible nearing recession.