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  • Weekly Focus: Non-Farm Payrolls, Many Macro Data Accompanied by Apple and Amazon Q2 Reporting

Weekly Focus: Non-Farm Payrolls, Many Macro Data Accompanied by Apple and Amazon Q2 Reporting

Stocks continue up last week after Personal Consumer Expenditure (PCE) Index slowed down to 3.0% YoY in June, beating a forecast at 3.1%. This is a significant slowdown from 3.8% in May. Retail investors are seem to be strongly inspired as the S&P 500 broad market index rose by 0.9% to 4583 points last Friday.

Institutional investors, however, are still captivated by correction fears, as U.S. debt market is moving neutral. The S&P 500 index has mostly exhausted its upside potential. The only upside target remaining is at 4660-4680 points, or another 1.5-2.0% up. Will the market has enough strength to hit this target running in the current upside formation. Apple and amazon Q2 2023 earnings reports may help investors to decide the direction of the market.

This week has many macroeconomic data releases. PMIs, trade balance data, inflation would be interesting to monitor. The meetings of Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of England may largely affect the exchange rates of the Aussie and the Cable. July Non-Farm Payrolls that will be released this Friday are expected to have an effect on the market movements next week. Apple and Amazon earning reports may move stocks in either direction.

Technically, the S&P 500 index continues to have an upside formation with targets at 4250-4350 points, that have already been met. The benchmark is struggling to move up towards 4560-4580 points. If this level would be passed the only upside target of the current formation at 4660-4680 points will remain. The nearest support level is located at 4440-4460. The downside signal has not formed yet, while there are more than enough incentives for this signal to emerge.

Brent crude prices passed the resistance at $81.80-82.00 per barrel after Organisation for Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies demonstrated commitment to continue with production cuts. This time prices may continue to go up towards $86-88 per barrel. In the alternative scenario prices may slip below $76 per barrel initiating a recession scenario with targets at $67-69 per barrel of Brent crude.

Gold prices are moving inside the mid-term upside formation with targets at $2000-2100 per troy ounce that have already been met. But, the situation has changed dramatically as the important support level of $1980-2000 per ounce was smashed. The chances for a correction towards $1820-1850 per ounce are still high.

The Greenback cooled its jets and went into correction, still looking solid compared to its major peers. Thus, even mid-term long positions for the U.S. Dollar are seen not to be appropriate. It would be better to wait for a decline of the EURUSD below 1.06000 to seek out sell opportunities for the Greenback.

Two positions opened for July ended in disappointment. The EURUSD opened at 1.08900-1.09200 was closed on the last day of July with 1000 points loss, while AUDUSD opened at 0.66400-0.66600 brought about 450 points of profit. Two operations were balance each other making a negative result for these assets lower.

However, overall trading result for July landed in the positive zone. New trades may emerge by the end of this week.