Bitcoin (BTC) rose 1.4% to $112,580 this week,
attempting to move away from the $110,000 support but still facing pullback
pressures. A successful breakout could bring BTC back to the key resistance
zone at $117,000–$120,000. Market attention remains firmly on the Federal
Reserve (Fed).
Weak U.S. labour data last Friday showed August Nonfarm Payrolls at just
22,000, the lowest since October 2024, while unemployment rose to 4.3%. This
boosted expectations of a 25 bp rate cut in September to 100%, with an 8%
probability now assigned to a larger 50 bp move. BTC briefly responded by
climbing to $113,343, signalling strength above the $107,000–$110,000 support.
On Tuesday, markets were shaken by a
deeper-than-expected jobs revision, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics cutting
figures by 911,000 compared to expectations of 680,000. Despite the backdrop
being supportive of dovish policy, BTC dropped 1.0% to $111,200 after a court
blocked U.S. President Donald Trump’s attempt to dismiss FOMC member Lisa Cook.
Her confirmed participation in the September Fed meeting is seen as reinforcing
Powell’s hawkish lean if required, tempering hopes of aggressive easing.
The next critical catalyst will be Thursday’s
U.S. inflation release. If CPI prints below the 2.9% YoY forecast, the Fed
could begin a dovish cycle with a 25 bp cut, potentially fuelling BTC’s rally.
But if inflation meets or exceeds expectations, a cautious tone may prevail,
pushing BTC back toward $107,000 support.
Elsewhere, Dogecoin (DOGE) has surged 12% in
four days on news it could join the shortlist of U.S.-listed spot crypto ETFs
through a legal workaround under the Investment Company Act of 1940,
potentially launching as soon as next week. DOGE could gain another 24% towards
$0.3000 resistance if momentum continues.
Meanwhile, Cboe announced plans to launch
continuous perpetual-style futures on Bitcoin and Ethereum as early as
November, subject to approval, a move that could draw significant new
institutional capital. Large investors are already stepping up, with inflows
into Bitcoin ETFs rising to $418.6 million last week across IBIT, FBTC, and
GBTC, more than double the prior week’s $181.4 million.
From a technical perspective, BTC’s strong
$107,000–$110,000 support zone looks difficult to breach under current conditions,
but the $117,000–$120,000 resistance remains the decisive barrier. Only a clean
break above this level would open the path toward the extreme target of
$155,000–$165,000.