S&P 500 broad
market index futures rose 1.58% to 6,582 points this week, setting new all-time
high at 6,593 for the last two consecutive days. Even this
peak may not represent the ceiling, as investor optimism continues to build. Expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut by
the Federal Reserve
(Fed) in September have faded,
with the probability of such a move dropping to 7.1% after the latest inflation
release. U.S. Consumer Price Index rose as expected to 2.9% YoY in August, making a half-point cut next week appear excessive. A more
balanced 25 basis point reduction, accompanied by dovish forward guidance, now
looks like the optimal decision. Markets already price in an 80% chance of three
consecutive 25 basis point cuts over the remainder of 2025, keeping the upside
path for equities open.
Large investors have already started building
positions. Inflows into the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) reached $5.17
billion this week, above average levels. Final confirmation of flows is
expected on Monday, and if accumulation continues, futures could move beyond
the 6,600 mark. That would open the way to the extreme upside target of
6,850–6,950 points, a move that could develop by the second half of October.
The decisive moment will likely come at the
Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday. The incoming U.S. economy data supports
cuts, with labour market conditions cooling for a second consecutive month,
while inflationary pressures from higher tariffs appear to be easing. Core
Producer Price Index fell sharply to 2.8% YoY
from 3.4%, suggesting inflation may already have peaked. This gives Fed Chair
Jerome Powell room to ease policy. A test of resistance at 6,600–6,620 points could follow quickly after possible dovish Fed
decision. U.S. retail sales data for August next Tuesaday may generate
short-term volatility, but the main focus will remain on monetary policy.
From a technical
perspective, futures have already achieved the primary target of 6,500–6,600,
now consolidating at 6,582 points. Immediate resistance stands at 6,610–6,630. A confirmed breakout above
this zone could extend the rally toward 6,850–6,950, while failure to hold
above 6,600 may trigger a corrective pullback. Near-term support is seen at
6,510–6,530.
In the oil market, the technically
unfavourable period continues. Brent crude has returned to the $66.00–$68.00
support zone, currently trading at $66.67. OPEC+ announced a modest October
production increase of 137,000 barrels per day, well below September’s 555,000
bpd rise. The resilience of the $66.00–$68.00 floor remains intact, with the
next resistance at $76.00–$78.00 and deeper support at $56.00–$58.00.
Gold extended gains above the $3,600
resistance, reaching a new all-time high of $3,674 per troy ounce. The market
remains heavily overbought, leaving further upside uncertain. Immediate
resistance is at $3,630–$3,650. A sustained break above this zone would
activate the path toward the extreme target of $3,850–$3,950.
The currency market remains mixed. The EURUSD
is holding above 1.17000 after a successful retest, but the anticipated
acceleration toward 1.19500–1.20500 has not materialised. Markets appear cautious
ahead of the Fed meeting, and the breakout above 1.17000 cannot yet be regarded
as fully confirmed. An alternative scenario of a pullback to 1.16000 remains
possible in the near term.