S&P 500 broad market index futures have
gained 0.20% to 6,249 points, gradually recovering after U.S. President Donald
Trump’s threats of tariff hikes once the July 9 deadline for trade negotiations
passes. The warning triggered a 0.62% drop to 6,228 points last Friday, but
fresh reassurances have helped markets regain ground. U.S. Treasury Secretary
Scott Bessent announced on Sunday that any tariff increases would only take
effect on August 1, targeting countries like the EU and Japan that have not yet
secured new trade deals with the U.S. This delay gives the S&P 500 space to
continue advancing toward the extreme target zone of 6,350–6,450 points.
Additional statements from Washington hinting at progress in trade talks have
also improved the market atmosphere, though no specific countries have yet been
named. More clarity is expected by Wednesday.
Attention is also turning to macroeconomic
data, particularly the upcoming release of minutes from the latest Federal
Reserve meeting. These will be scrutinized for indications of the Fed’s stance
following a surprisingly strong U.S. jobs report. As a result of that report,
market expectations for a July rate cut have collapsed to just 4.5%, down from
24.7%. Although Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, had previously
signaled a dovish approach, the recent economic data now requires a clearer
articulation of the central bank’s direction. A more hawkish tone in the
minutes is unlikely to disrupt markets significantly.
The upcoming U.S. corporate earnings season,
set to begin next week with Q2 reports from major banks, is expected to drive
further market gains. New all-time highs are likely during this period, and the
S&P 500 is projected to reach the 6,350–6,450 target zone before entering a
possible correction in August or beyond. The depth of that pullback could
determine the market's full-year trajectory. A moderate correction of 5–10%
would keep the bullish outlook intact, but anything deeper could signal a more
serious downturn, especially given that August, September, and October are
historically volatile months.
Large investors appear to be cautiously
reducing exposure. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) saw net outflows of
$1.63 billion last week, likely reflecting hedging activity ahead of the July 9
trade deadline. With that tension now easing, indexes are regaining strength.
Technically, the S&P 500 remains on a bullish path. Having broken through
the 5,950–6,050 range, the benchmark is on track for further gains toward
6,350–6,450. It is currently near the 6,250–6,270 resistance zone, which may
hold for the week before another push higher. Immediate support is located at
6,150–6,170.
In the oil market, Brent crude remains
technically fragile, trading at the $67.00–$69.00 per barrel support zone. No
decisive breakdown has occurred yet, so a rebound toward $76.00–$78.00 remains
the base scenario. The OPEC+ decision to increase production by 548,000 barrels
per day starting in August has had little impact on prices, indicating
underlying resilience. If the support fails, a decline toward $57.00–$59.00
would likely follow.
Gold prices remain in a stable consolidation
phase. After failing to break below the $3,230 per troy ounce support last
week, prices bounced back toward the $3,330–$3,350 range. This supports the
view of a summer consolidation phase likely to continue until mid-August. A
sustained breakout from the $3,250–$3,450 range will only become more likely
later this summer. A deeper decline would require a confirmed break below
$3,230.
In the currency market, the U.S. Dollar has
begun to stabilize, supported in part by the delay of the trade deadline to
August 1. The EURUSD pair, which already reached the extreme 1.18000–1.19000
target zone, now appears poised for a correction back to 1.15000–1.15500. At
the current level of around 1.17330, further upside seems increasingly
unlikely.