Bitcoin (BTC) is down 0.4% this week to
$108,738, though it continues to trade firmly within the key resistance zone of
$108,000–$110,000, which is a signal that a breakout may be close. Over the
weekend, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that several trade
agreements could still be reached before the July 9 deadline, with the broader
tariff deadline now extended to August 1. BTC responded positively, briefly
rising to $109,671. Although this extension offers some breathing room, the
uncertainty surrounding trade negotiations with the EU, Japan, and others
continues to limit risk appetite. A breakthrough with either of these key
partners could shift market sentiment meaningfully.
Current market conditions remain finely
balanced, yet institutional positioning appears increasingly optimistic.
According to Glassnode, there’s a visible shift in BTC ownership from retail to
large investors. At the end of 2024, when BTC first approached the $100,000
mark, retail crowd buying was at its peak while institutional players were
taking profits, a setup that preceded the correction to $74,464. Now, the
opposite trend is underway. While inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, including IBIT
(BlackRock), FBTC (Fidelity), and GBTC (Grayscale), fell from $1.2 billion last
week to $357.2 million this week, cumulative flows remain strong. An additional
$461.6 million has entered these funds this week, hovering near record highs
and signaling continued confidence from large investors.
Meanwhile, Elon Musk entered the political
spotlight again, announcing the formation of a new "America"
political party in opposition to Donald Trump’s tax policies and ballooning
federal debt. While politics dominates headlines, Musk also made a bold
statement supporting crypto, declaring that fiat currencies are doomed and the
future belongs to Bitcoin. Yet Tesla’s own crypto holdings at just $1.2 billion
in BTC out of $36.9 billion in cash suggest a more cautious stance in practice.
The Trump administration is also doubling down
on crypto. Truth Social, the crypto arm of Trump’s business empire, has filed
for a second crypto ETF. While the first fund includes BTC and Ethereum (ETH),
the new one adds Solana (SOL) and Ripple (XRP), reflecting growing confidence
in a broader crypto rally.
Technically, the $108,000–$110,000 resistance
is the final hurdle before BTC can break higher. If this level is cleared in
July, an accelerated move toward $117,000–$127,000 could follow, with a
longer-term target of $150,000–$175,000. Ideally, this rally should unfold
before autumn, when trade tensions and geopolitical risks may begin to weigh
more heavily on global markets.