S&P 500 broad market index futures
increased by 1.23% to 6,245 points this week. The benchmark rose earlier than
expected above the weekly resistance zone at 6,150–6,170 and hit new all-time
highs several times, establishing a new record at 6,283 points. It has now run
into the next intermediate resistance at 6,250–6,270, which is expected to hold
until the end of next week. Market players may need time to digest major
developments — including Donald Trump’s Big Beautiful tax Bill, which passed
through Congress, and the surprisingly strong U.S. jobs report for June. The
next focal point is the trade negotiation deadline set by President Trump for
July 9.
The tax bill remains the central driver. It
passed the Senate on Tuesday and the House of Representatives by Thursday
night. In response, the S&P 500 gained 0.93% by Thursday, reaching 6,229
points, helping offset the market shock from the strong Nonfarm Payrolls
report. June’s NFP came in at 147,000, well above the expected 111,000, and
sharply contradicted Wednesday’s ADP estimate of a 33,000 job decline. Even
more unexpectedly, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1% versus the expected
4.3%, marking the lowest level since February. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields
jumped to 4.36% from 4.26%, the dollar strengthened, and the S&P 500
hovered around 6,220 before surging to a record 6,283 after the House approved
the tax bill. With U.S. markets closed for Independence Day, futures are now
slightly correcting.
The strong jobs report slashed the probability
of a July interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve to just 4.7%, down from
25.3%. Markets seem comfortable with this shift, driven more by the appeal of
the 6,350–6,450 extreme upside target. The bigger risk now is the potential
tariff hike promised by Trump for July 9. No agreements have yet been reached
with Japan or the EU. If there’s no breakthrough over the weekend, the S&P
500 could face a pullback. Further delays might drag the index back toward
6,000, setting the tone for next week.
Large investors have slightly reduced their
exposure. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) reported $2.30 billion in net
inflows during the first half of the week, down from $9.98 billion the week
prior. However, institutional traders still appear positioned for a move toward
6,350–6,450, assuming a deal with the EU and Japan is reached soon.
Technically, the
S&P 500’s outlook has improved significantly. Futures
have cleared the 5,950–6,050 range and are now advancing through 6,250–6,270. A
pause is likely this week before a potential final push higher. Immediate
support lies at 6,150–6,170.
In the oil market, Brent crude remains in a
weak phase, hovering above the $67.00–$69.00 support zone. A rebound toward
$76.00–$78.00 remains the base case, unless a decisive breakdown drags prices
down to $57.00–$59.00. Gold prices have also held above the critical
$3,230–$3,250 per troy ounce support zone and rebounded toward $3,330–$3,350.
This suggests a summer consolidation pattern within the $3,250–$3,450 range may
continue until mid-August. A deeper drop would require a firm close below $3,230.
In the currency market, the U.S. Dollar
appears poised for a correction. The EURUSD pair has already reached the
1.18000–1.19000 extreme target zone and is now trading near 1.17740. A pullback
toward 1.15000–1.15500 is likely, as further upside seems increasingly
difficult under current conditions.