S&P 500 broad market index futures fell by 1.0% to 6,378 points this week,
touching lows at 6,343, near the 6,310–6,330 support zone. The index ended each session in negative territory, apart from a modest
0.10% gain on Friday.
Investor attention is
firmly on Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s
upcoming speech at Jackson Hole on Friday, which is expected to outline the
central bank’s policy direction. While speculation exists
about a longer-term framework review, market participants are primarily focused
on the near-term outlook for interest rates. Market-implied bets of a quarter-point rate cut by the Fed in September
have eased to 75.0%, from 85.4% earlier in the week.
Mixed economic signals continue to weigh on
sentiment. August PMI data in the U.S. surprised to the upside, while labour
market indicators remain soft, with jobless claims rising to a one-month high. Recent commentary from Fed officials suggests
limited appetite for a September cut, although clarity is expected after
Powell’s remarks.
Nevertheless, the White House will respond to Powell’s statements.
Flows into S&P 500-linked instruments
reflect cautious positioning. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) recorded
$571.2 million in inflows this week, following significant outflows over the
prior two weeks ($2.4 billion and $11.3 billion). This suggests investor
sentiment remains fragile.
Technically, the index has met its primary
upside target of 6,450–6,550. Current resistance is at 6,410–6,430, with a
break above opening the path toward 6,510–6,530. Support lies at 6,310–6,330,
and a move below would signal a shift toward a bearish structure with a
downside target of 6,050–6,150.
Brent crude prices held near $67.66, remaining
within the $66.00–$68.00 support zone. Supply-side pressure persists, with
OPEC+ set to add another 548,000 barrels per day from September and the
possibility of sanctions relief for Russia. Resistance stands at $76.00–$78.00,
with deeper support at $56.00–$58.00.
Gold continues to trade in a tight range, with
support at $3,230–$3,250 and resistance at $3,430–$3,450. Prices have returned
to the midpoint at $3,330–$3,350, suggesting ongoing consolidation. A
directional breakout from this range is likely in the coming weeks.
The U.S. Dollar
strengthened, pushing the
EURUSD down 0.92% to 1.15970. The pair remains near the 1.16000–1.17000 target range, with a break in
either direction likely to drive follow-through momentum. A move above 1.17000
would open the way toward 1.19500–1.20500, while sustained trading below
1.16000 would signal downside risk.