S&P 500 broad market index futures are
trading neutrally around the 6,445 level on Monday, holding steady after a
modest pullback. The benchmark
briefly reached a new all-time high of 6,486 points before closing last Friday
down 0.35% near 6,446, likely in response to weaker-than-expected U.S. retail
sales for July. Growth slowed to 0.5% MoM from 0.9%, a reading
that is broadly acceptable as it reflects disinflationary pressure while still
demonstrating underlying economic strength. Wall Street
had expected a 0.6% MoM
increase.
The retreat was driven more by anticipation of
the upcoming meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President
Vladimir Putin in Anchorage than by retail data itself. Even large investors
began exiting positions late last week. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)
reported $2.40 billion in net outflows for the week, following $1.23 billion of
inflows in the first half and a sharp $11.3 billion outflow the week prior. The
trend increasingly suggests that institutional players are preparing for a
deeper correction.
The Anchorage talks are set to continue, with
Trump scheduled to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Monday,
followed by discussions with European leaders. Washington is reportedly
considering a proposal to cede part of Ukrainian territory in exchange for a
ceasefire and security guarantees. If
Zelenskyy refuses, tensions could escalate further, and threats of 100% tariffs
on China and India for purchasing Russian oil may resurface at some point.
Another risk factor
this week is Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s
speech at the annual Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, an event that typically
signals the Fed’s policy direction for the year ahead. Investors
are watching closely to see how Powell frames his stance in the context of
political tensions with President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
If Powell remains hawkish, White House pressure on him is likely to intensify,
a scenario markets historically react negatively to. This may already explain
recent institutional outflows from SPY.
Additional clues may come on Tuesday when Fed
Governor Michelle Bowman, who alongside Christopher Waller supported a rate cut
at the July meeting, is scheduled to speak. On Wednesday, minutes from the
latest FOMC meeting will be released, potentially exposing internal
disagreements over monetary policy.
Technically, the S&P 500 remains within
its bullish formation. Futures have already reached the primary target, with
the focus now shifting to a higher zone of 6,450–6,550 points. The current
level is 6,445. Immediate resistance lies at 6,500–6,520, and a breakout above
this range could open the way toward 6,600–6,620. Beyond that, the extreme
target of 6,850–6,950 comes into play.
In the oil market, the technically favourable
period extends into September, with Brent crude prices holding within the
$66.00–$68.00 support zone. The current level is $66.00. Weakness is driven by
OPEC+’s plan to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September,
alongside expectations of potential sanctions relief on Russia. Resistance is
at $76.00–$78.00, while the next support lies at $56.00–$58.00.
Gold prices continue
to hover between $3,230-$3,250 per troy ounce and $3,430–$3,450, drifting back
toward the midpoint range of $3,330–$3,350. The current
level is $3,347. The summer consolidation phase is nearing its end, with a
breakout from the $3,250–$3,450 range likely from mid-August onward.
In the currency market, a larger move against
the U.S. Dollar appears to be building and could materialise this week. The
EURUSD is trading within its primary target zone of 1.16500–1.17000, with the
current level at 1.16800. A break above resistance would activate the path
toward the extreme upside target of 1.19500–1.20500.