S&P 500 futures are trading steadily
around 6,464 this week, showing resilience after Friday’s sell-off. Investors
are assessing the risks linked to a judicial reversal of President Donald
Trump’s tariffs after the U.S. Court of Appeals ruled them unlawful. The White
House has pledged to appeal to the Supreme Court, with a final verdict due in
October. Until then, the levies remain in place. Trump argued on Truth Social
that without tariff revenues it would be “game over” for the U.S., noting the
government might be forced to refund $100 billion already collected and find
new ways to finance $3–4 trillion in tax cuts. With national debt standing at
$37.3 trillion, the Supreme Court’s ruling could prove a turning point. For
now, however, investors appear unconvinced by worst-case scenarios. The first
trading session after Labour Day on Tuesday will be a key test; if no major
sell-off emerges, the path toward the 6,600 resistance level remains open.
Caution is evident among large investors,
however. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust shrank to $134.7 million last week from
$2.37 billion, following prior outflows of $13.7 billion. This positioning
suggests the idea of a correction from the 6,500–6,600 zone remains on the
table, with September a historically weak month for equities since 1927.
The flow of macroeconomic data this week is
set to influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next move. The key
release will be August Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday, after Jerome Powell placed
labour-market conditions at the centre of policy considerations during his
Jackson Hole speech. A rise in unemployment to 4.3% from 4.2% would strongly
support the case for a September rate cut, while a surprise decline in
unemployment would complicate matters. Such a scenario appears less likely,
given an uptick in initial jobless claims during August and the leadership
change at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, where the previous director was
removed after significant payroll revisions.
Other important data and events will unfold
earlier in the week. On Tuesday, manufacturing PMI figures are due, with the
S&P Global version expected to remain at a robust 53.3 points and the ISM
version to improve slightly to 48.9 from 48.0. On the same day, former Fed
governor Lisa Cook is expected to present new evidence contesting the mortgage
misconduct allegations that led to her removal. Thursday brings ADP employment
data, forecast to show a slowdown in hiring to 71,000 from 104,000, followed by
services PMI results. Later that day, Stephen Miran will face Senate
confirmation hearings for the vacant FOMC seat left by Adriana Kugler. If
confirmed, this would add weight to the Trump-aligned bloc within the Fed,
potentially increasing the likelihood of a more aggressive cut, with
speculation already pointing to the possibility of 50 basis points in
September.
From a technical perspective, S&P 500
futures have reached the 6,500–6,600 target zone. Immediate resistance lies at
6,500–6,520, with a breakout above this range opening the way toward
6,600–6,620. A successful move beyond that level could set the stage for an
advance toward 6,850–6,950. Support remains at 6,400–6,420, offering a buffer
should sentiment weaken.
In the oil market, Brent crude is stable near
$68.00 per barrel. OPEC+ began raising production by 548,000 barrels per day
from September 1, with the next policy meeting scheduled for September 7. Price
action suggests resistance is located in the $76.00–$78.00 range, while the
next layer of support is at $56.00–$58.00.
Gold prices have held firm above their summer
support of $3,230–$3,250 per troy ounce and are now testing resistance at
$3,430–$3,450. Current levels stand at $3,471, and a sustained break above
$3,450 could push prices toward the next upside target of $3,500–$3,600.
The U.S. Dollar remains
under pressure in currency markets. The EURUSD pair is
trading above 1.1700, a level that has now shifted into support. If prices hold
above this threshold, momentum could build for a move toward the 1.1950–1.2050
range.