Bitcoin (BTC) rose 3.3% to $114,500 this week,
rebounding from the $107,000–$110,000 support zone despite the U.S. government
shutdown and now approaching resistance at $117,000–$120,000. The shutdown became official at midnight on
Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump’s meeting with
congressional minority leaders on Monday ended without agreement and lawmakers
failed again on Tuesday to pass a temporary funding bill. The
last shutdown under Trump in December 2018–January 2019 lasted 35 days, the
longest in U.S. history, and pushed BTC down about 6.0%, though that decline
was marked by short rallies within the broader pullback.
This time conditions look more favourable. The
shutdown coincides with October, historically the strongest month for crypto,
often dubbed “Uptober.” Bitcoin has gained an average of 21.0% in October,
which would point to $137,900 by month-end if history repeats. More important
than the exact target is a confirmed breakout above the $118,000–$120,000
resistance zone. Such a move would set up an extreme rally toward
$155,000–$165,000, a target well within reach if November and December deliver
their typical combined 15.0% gain.
While the shutdown may act as a temporary
drag, a resolution could release pent-up momentum like a slingshot. Political
gridlock suggests the closure may last several weeks, in line with historical
averages. Meanwhile, large investors have stepped back. Bitcoin ETFs, including
IBIT from BlackRock, FBTC from Fidelity, and GBTC from Grayscale, saw outflows
of $71.2 million last week, a sharp contrast to the $2.37 billion inflow over
the prior two weeks. This week,
withdrawals have accelerated with another $354.8 million flowing out, which is
not alarming too.
Market players are left without a key guidepost, as the
September U.S. jobs report will not be released due to the shutdown. The ADP Nonfarm Payrolls report on Wednesday will instead be closely
watched ahead of the Fed’s 29 October meeting. Wall Street expects modest
cooling in the labour market, which would still support risk assets, including
crypto.
Technically, BTC remains in the same setup.
Support at $107,000–$110,000 has proven highly resilient, while resistance at
$117,000–$120,000 is the decisive barrier. If seasonal strength drives a
breakout, the rally toward $155,000–$165,000 could resume rapidly.