Bitcoin (BTC) rose 2.1% to $111,180 this week,
holding just above the $107,000–$110,000 support zone, which is a sign that a
return to the $117,000–$120,000 resistance area could be on the horizon.
However, September’s seasonal effect looms large. Historically, it has been the
weakest month for financial markets, with BTC averaging 5–6% declines. If
history rhymes, the flagship cryptocurrency could close the month around
$102,000.
The outcome will depend heavily on external
factors. To counterbalance the seasonal drag, markets need dovish support from
the Federal Reserve (Fed) and a favourable Supreme Court ruling on U.S.
President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Interest rates cut bets for September
currently sit at 89.6%. A softer-than-expected August jobs report, with
unemployment forecast to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%, would provide exactly the type
of justification the Fed needs for further easing.
The U.S. Court of Appeals ruled Trump’s
tariffs unlawful last Friday, a decision widely perceived as politically
motivated. The White House will appeal to the Supreme Court, but a verdict is
unlikely before October. Trump, however, is pushing for a faster resolution. If
the tariffs are struck down, the U.S. would be forced to refund over $100
billion in levies and borrow trillions more to finance tax cuts, pushing
interest rates higher and weighing on risky assets. This prospect has already
rattled U.S. equities, which fell on Friday and Tuesday.
Surprisingly, institutional players are
unfazed. They added $181.4 million into Bitcoin ETFs last week — including
BlackRock’s IBIT, Fidelity’s FBTC, and Grayscale’s GBTC. Such flows suggest
“big money” sees technical resilience around $107,000–$110,000, though without
a clear macro catalyst, BTC is unlikely to rally sharply. That catalyst may
come with weak labour market data.
Meanwhile, crypto circles are buzzing about
the upcoming movie Kill Satoshi, a detective-style spy thriller on the origins
of blockchain. Produced by Ryan Kavanaugh (The Social Network, Fast &
Furious) and directed by Doug Liman (The Bourne Identity), it’s scheduled for
2026. The publicity could be huge — provided it doesn’t coincide with another
crypto winter.
Technically, the picture remains clear. The
$117,000–$120,000 resistance is the decisive barrier. Only a firm breakout
above this zone would unlock BTC’s path toward the extreme target range of
$155,000–$165,000.