S&P 500 broad
market index futures rose 1.2% to 6,481 points this week, breaking out of the
previously expected correction scenario toward 6,030–6,130 and reversing into a
bullish technical pattern that has already met its primary upside target of
6,400–6,500 points.
The main driver was an
inflation surprise, as U.S. consumer prices remained unchanged at 2.7% YoY in
July, below the 2.8% forecast, which inspired markets despite a rise in core
CPI to 3.1% YoY from 2.9%. The S&P 500 surged 1.2% to 6,446 in a single
session, marking a new all-time high. Momentum carried into Wednesday with the
extension of the U.S.–China trade truce for another 90 days and comments from
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urging the Fed to cut rates by 50 basis
points in September, adding that current rates should already be 1.50–1.75
percentage points lower. The index gained another 0.28% to 6,462 points,
setting another record.
However, July producer
prices delivered a shock as headline PPI jumped to 3.3% YoY from 2.3%, while
core PPI climbed to 3.7% YoY, the highest since March 2023. Hopes for a
50-basis-point cut were quickly abandoned, and the S&P 500 slipped to 6,431
points intraday before staging a rebound, with traders joking that producer
inflation no longer scared them as long as consumer inflation remained “under
control.”
Large investors showed little enthusiasm, with
net inflows into the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) at just $1.23 billion, a
weak figure following last week’s $11.3 billion outflow, leaving many sidelined
and preparing for a potential correction.
U.S. retail sales data due Friday is expected
to slow to 0.5% MoM from 0.6%, which could support sentiment by signalling
economic resilience without adding inflation pressure. While the benchmark
could push higher, it is already near its 6,500 target, and breaking above this
will be challenging.
Later on Friday, U.S.
President Donald Trump will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska, with
officials downplaying expectations, yet the extension of the China trade truce
hints at possible progress that markets may price in as early as Monday.
Next week will bring
Fed meeting minutes on Wednesday, updated U.S. PMI data on Thursday, and Fed Chair
Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole symposium speech on Friday, an event of
exceptional importance.
Technically, the
S&P 500 has shifted from a bearish to a bullish structure, with resistance
now at 6,500–6,520; a breakout could open the path to 6,800–6,900.
In the oil market,
Brent crude remains within the $66.00–$68.00 support zone at $66.50, with
weakness stemming from OPEC+’s planned September output increase of 548,000
barrels per day and potential sanctions relief for Russia; resistance stands at
$76.00–$78.00, while deeper support lies at $56.00–$58.00.
Gold continues to hold
key support at $3,230–$3,250 per troy ounce, capped by resistance at
$3,430–$3,450, and is gravitating toward $3,330–$3,350, with the summer
consolidation likely ending mid-August when a breakout from the $3,250–$3,450
range could occur.
In currencies, the
U.S. Dollar remains under gradual pressure, with EURUSD trading at 1.16820
within its 1.16500–1.17000 target zone; a breakout higher could open the way to
1.19500–1.20500, though participation is risky amid rising volatility, even as
catalysts for a broader dollar sell-off accumulate.