Bitcoin (BTC) is up just 0.58% this week to $119,310
despite an exceptionally positive news backdrop, holding above the key $117,000
support and appearing poised to resume its upward move. Positive developments
have been arriving in rapid succession. A breakthrough in the Ukraine conflict
is in sight, with U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin
agreeing to meet in Alaska on August 15. The U.S. administration has struck a deal with Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD to
resume chip exports to China in exchange for surrendering 15% of related revenue,
removing major hurdles in U.S.–China relations. The U.S. extended the trade
truce with China for another 90 days until November 9.
Trump has also signed an executive order
allowing U.S. pension funds to invest in crypto assets. With the U.S.
retirement market valued at around $43 trillion, even a 1% allocation would
exceed the size of all existing crypto ETFs combined. Meanwhile, July CPI came
in at 2.7% YoY versus expectations of 2.8%, fuelling bets on a September rate
cut, which jumped to 90.1% from 82.4%. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has even suggested a bold 50 basis
point cut, a view likely to be pushed by several FOMC members, increasing the
chance of dovish rhetoric ahead of the September 17 meeting, a scenario
historically favourable for crypto markets.
Ethereum (ETH) is now just 5.4% below its
all-time high of $4,864, with many market participants expecting a break above
$5,000 by August. According to Polymarket, this is the most popular bet at
$685,000 with 60% probability, although some analysts caution that ETH is
overbought and could see a pullback after new highs. Institutional investors
have also returned to the market, reversing last week’s $659 million in Bitcoin
ETF outflows with $390.3 million in fresh inflows so far this week.
Technically, BTC appears ready to retest its
all-time highs multiple times in the near term. A decisive break above the
$117,000–$120,000 resistance zone could trigger the next leg higher,
potentially opening the way towards $155,000–$165,000 over the coming months.