S&P 500 futures rose 1.4% to 6,736 points
this week, advancing steadily toward the extreme target of 6,900–7,000. The
benchmark set fresh all-time highs for three consecutive days, the latest
record at 6,737. Even a 0.68% intraday dip to 6,628 points was quickly bought,
with Wednesday’s session closing 0.50% higher at 6,705, marking the third
straight day of gains. Investor appetite remains strong. Large players added
$7.23 billion into the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) this week, excluding
Thursday and Friday, following last week’s $11.34 billion inflows. Such figures
suggest deep commitment to the rally, with final confirmation expected when
full data is published on Monday. Technically, futures have broken through the
6,500–6,600 zone and reached resistance at 6,720–6,740. Once cleared, the rally
toward 6,900–7,000 should resume.
The U.S. government shutdown entered full
effect on Wednesday midnight, suspending most federal operations after repeated
failed votes in Congress. No breakthroughs have been reported between Democrats
and Republicans, and the official September Nonfarm Payrolls release will not
take place Friday, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics is closed. ADP’s report
showed a sharp deterioration with September employment falling by 32,000, while
August’s initial gain of 54,000 was revised to a contraction of 3,000.
Manufacturing data added mixed signals, with S&P Global PMI easing to 52.0
from 53.0, while ISM posted a slight improvement to 49.1 from 48.7. Despite
this divergence, sentiment remains bullish as a cooling labour market
strengthens the case for two additional Fed rate cuts in 2025. Attention now
turns to Friday’s services PMI, where a neutral Wall Street consensus leaves
room for outsized market reaction in case of surprises.
Brent crude prices remain under pressure,
falling to $64.44 per barrel. The market failed to hold above the $65.00–$67.00
support zone and is now testing the lower boundary. A breakdown could open the
way to deeper declines, with the next supports at $55.00–$57.00 and potentially
$45.00–$55.00. The technically unfavourable phase is expected to persist
through the end of October.
Gold prices surged to the extreme upside
target of $3,850–$3,950 per troy ounce. Traders should now monitor for reversal
patterns, though the process may take time. The metal remains at record
overbought levels, the highest in history.
The EURUSD remains volatile and without clear
direction. Hawkish remarks by Fed Chair Jerome Powell halted the rally at
1.19180 two weeks ago, and last week the pair dropped to 1.16450, breaking
below 1.17000. Strong rebound attempts are underway, but uncertainty persists.
A sustained break above 1.17600–1.17800 would signal a resumption of the
bullish trend, while a decline below 1.15000 could extend losses. Both outcomes
remain possible.