The S&P 500 index futures rose 1.2% to
6,753 points this week, moving within sight of their all-time high at 6,765 as
the benchmark pushes to set a new record. A fresh peak could be sparked by volatility
surrounding the release of September U.S. inflation data (CPI). Markets
remained tense throughout the week. Initial optimism following President Donald
Trump’s conciliatory comments on China quickly gave way to disappointment as
key corporate results underwhelmed. Netflix missed Wall Street expectations due
to a tax dispute in Brazil, while Tesla reported a 37% decline in profits, with
investors growing uneasy about Elon Musk’s emphasis on robotaxi development
rather than vehicle production. These reports weighed heavily on the broader
Big Tech sector, dragging the S&P 500 down 1.2% to 6,653.
However, sentiment improved as attention
shifted back to prospects of a U.S.-China trade deal. Trump hinted that an
agreement could be finalised by 30 October, coinciding with a potential meeting
with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Meanwhile, anticipation is building ahead of
next Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting. Wall Street analysts increasingly
expect not only a 25 basis point rate cut but also the official conclusion of
the quantitative tightening cycle.
September CPI data due on Friday will be the
next key test. Markets expect annual inflation to tick up to 3.1% from 2.9%,
though a softer 3.0% reading cannot be ruled out. Such an outcome would
reinforce the Fed’s dovish stance and lend further support to equities. For
now, the S&P 500 has reached its primary upside target at 6,750–6,850
points. A confirmed breakout above this resistance range would open the path
toward the extreme upside target of 7,100–7,200, though that scenario remains
difficult to justify at current levels. A large open price gap at 6,507
continues to act as a gravitational force, suggesting that a pullback cannot be
excluded.
Uncertainty also surrounds upcoming tech
earnings, with Microsoft, Alphabet, Apple, and Amazon all set to report next
week. Their results will play a decisive role in shaping market direction.
Large investors remain cautious. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)
registered net outflows of $1.7 billion this week, reversing the prior week’s
$2.35 billion inflows. While final data may soften this figure, it nonetheless
signals growing hesitation among institutional players as the benchmark
approaches critical resistance.
The technical picture remains ambiguous. The
S&P 500 continues to trade within a bullish formation but has already met
its primary upside target. The index could either retrace toward the open gap
near 6,507 in a short-term correction or sustain a breakout above 6,850, which
would confirm a move toward the extreme target of 7,100–7,200.
In the oil market, the technically
unfavourable phase is drawing to a close, though downward pressure remains into
late October. Brent crude has returned to the previously broken support zone of
$65.00–$67.00 and is now retesting it. Failure to hold above this range would
open the way for a decline toward $55.00–$57.00, near the ultimate bearish
target of $45.00–$55.00. A sustained recovery above $67.00, however, would
revive prospects of a rebound toward $75.00–$77.00.
Gold prices declined 8.5% this week,
signalling that a correction phase is underway. A further decline toward
$3,800–$3,900 per troy ounce appears likely. From there, the metal could repeat
the 1979 pattern and launch a renewed rally toward $5,000 by late 2025 or early
2026. A deeper correction toward $3,500 remains a secondary scenario.
In the currency market, the EURUSD continues
its effort to close the gap at 1.17380, which now appears within reach. Beyond
that, direction remains uncertain. Both a rally above 1.19000 and a decline
below 1.15000 remain possible, while a confirmed break above 1.17500–1.17800
would signal the resumption of bullish momentum toward 1.19000.