S&P 500 index futures declined 0.15% to 6,457 points on Monday, a minor pullback following Friday’s sharp 1.50% rally, the strongest single-day gain since early August. The move was triggered by the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) unexpectedly dovish shift at the Jackson Hole symposium.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that the balance of risks has shifted, with rising concerns about the labour market now outweighing inflation. He signalled that a rate cut in September is under consideration, while a sustained improvement in employment could be the main factor preventing such action. The remarks were widely interpreted as a clear policy pivot.
Markets reacted swiftly: U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell sharply, the U.S. Dollar declined 1.2%, and the S&P 500 nearly reclaimed its record high of 6,486 points before closing Friday at 6,479. While this is seen by some as a strong bullish signal, large investors remain cautious. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) recorded $5.25 million in outflows last week, extending a three-week streak of withdrawals totalling almost $14 billion.
At the same time, concerns have surfaced that the Fed’s readiness to cut interest rates despite inflation risks could suggest underlying economic weakness, raising questions about corporate earnings outlook. In this context, Nvidia’s Q2 2025 earnings release on Wednesday will be closely watched. Options markets imply a potential price move of up to 6% in either direction. Later in the week, attention will turn to macroeconomic data, including the second estimate of U.S. Q2 GDP on Thursday and the PCE price index on Friday, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure.
Technically, the S&P 500 has reached its key 6,450–6,550 target range, with immediate resistance at 6,490–6,510. A breakout above this zone could extend gains toward 6,590–6,610, potentially opening the way for a broader rally to 6,850–6,950. Support remains at 6,390–6,410.
In commodities, Brent crude trades at $67.88, holding within the $66.00–$68.00 support zone. Downward pressure comes from OPEC+’s decision to raise output by 548,000 barrels per day in September and expectations of possible sanctions relief on Russia. Resistance is at $76.00–$78.00, while further support lies at $56.00–$58.00.
Gold remains range-bound between $3,250 and $3,450 per troy ounce, currently trading at $3,366. Prices may revert toward the midpoint at $3,330–$3,350, but the consolidation phase could be nearing an end. A breakout from the range may occur later in August, pending a catalyst.
In currencies, the U.S. Dollar weakened sharply on Friday. The EURUSD surged 1.12% to 1.17370, breaking above the long-held 1.16000–1.17000 resistance zone. The pair is now retesting that level, and confirmation could open the path toward 1.19500–1.20500.