The S&P 500 futures rose by 1.00% to 6,310
points this week, despite a midweek drop of 0.83% to 6,201 on Wednesday. The
benchmark set a new all-time high of 6,317 points on Friday. The week was
marked by major shifts in investor sentiment. Concerns flared on Monday over new
30% tariffs aimed at the EU and Mexico. Then on Tuesday, inflation surprised to the upside with the U.S.
Consumer Price Index for June climbing to 2.7% YoY,
the highest since February. Even strong earnings from
major U.S. banks failed to offset the pressure.
The Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated
that a rate cut in July would be inappropriate, but President Donald Trump
disagreed, needing stimulus to prevent a potential market downturn ahead of
autumn. After pushing through tax cuts, Trump shifted
focus to interest rates. Amid the tension, Republican congresswoman Anna
Paulina Luna announced Powell’s removal, citing mismanagement during
renovations at the Federal Reserve’s Washington headquarters. Some lawmakers
reportedly backed the move, sending shockwaves through markets. The S&P 500
fell quickly as investors perceived the potential removal as a threat to the
Fed’s independence. Just hours later, Trump denied any such plan, and attention
turned back to economic data. The Producer Price Index revealed a decline in
June, while Thursday’s retail sales report showed a strong 0.6% rebound after a
0.9% drop in May.
Meanwhile, Netflix
released its Q2 2025 earnings report after market close on Thursday, beating expectations,
albeit less agressively than in the past. Its shares
dropped 1.55% to $1,252.90 in premarket trading. Still, overall sentiment
remained positive, especially toward the broader tech sector, which is expected
to begin reporting next week. Investors are becoming more confident, and the
S&P 500 appears to have enough momentum to push toward the 6,350–6,450
range, possibly as early as next week. Supporting this view, the SPDR S&P
500 ETF Trust recorded modest net inflows of $242.9 million. Although the flow
wasn’t large, it signals steady confidence among major investors who prefer to
hold positions rather than react to political noise or tariff concerns.
Technically, the index
remains strong, holding above resistance at 6,250–6,270 points, increasing the
likelihood of an upward move toward 6,350–6,370. The next
support is at 6,150–6,170.
In the commodities market, Brent crude oil
prices dipped to the support range of $67.00–$69.00 per barrel, yet failed to
close below it, keeping the possibility of a rebound to $76.00–$78.00 alive. The recent OPEC+ decision to increase output by
548,000 barrels per day starting August had minimal impact, reflecting
underlying market resilience. However, a decisive move
below the $67.00–$69.00 level could trigger a deeper decline to $57.00–$59.00.
Gold prices remained
in a summer consolidation phase, failing to break below the critical
$3,230–$3,250 support and rebounding toward $3,330–$3,350, currently trading at
$3,348 per troy ounce. This quiet trading environment is
expected to last until at least mid-August, with a breakout from the
$3,250–$3,450 range likely to follow. A firmer downward break would require a
close below $3,230.
In currencies, the U.S. Dollar showed signs of
weakness, with EURUSD falling to 1.15560 on Thursday following
stronger-than-expected retail sales, before rebounding to 1.16370. A further
decline toward 1.15000–1.15500 remains possible, but the bullish and bearish
forces now appear more evenly balanced.