Bitcoin (BTC) jumped by 7.3% to $106,347 this
week amid easing tensions in the Middle East. Even at the height of
geopolitical risk, the benchmark cryptocurrency held firm near the key $100,000
level—a clear sign of market strength. BTC is now decisively approaching the
immediate resistance zone at $108,000–110,000.
The end of last week was a major test for the
crypto market. It became clear that Israel alone could not fully dismantle
Iran’s nuclear programme. Additionally, Israeli military resources appeared
stretched. Attention turned to the United States, where President Donald Trump
announced a two-week pause in escalation. Bitcoin closed near $103,500 on
Friday in response. But fears quickly materialised over the weekend as Trump
ordered a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, causing BTC to plunge to
$98,124 on Sunday.
Fortunately, Iran chose a path of
de-escalation. Rather than block the Strait of Hormuz or conduct large-scale
attacks on U.S. military bases, Tehran launched up to 19 missiles, according to
some estimates, at a U.S. military airbase in Qatar, providing advance warning.
All missiles were intercepted, and no casualties were reported. It soon became
apparent that both Iran and Israel were preparing for a ceasefire. Trump
confirmed this on Monday, and both sides officially endorsed the ceasefire on
Tuesday. Since Iran’s "symbolic response" on Monday, cryptocurrencies
have rallied steadily.
There’s more good news. The White House’s
monetary policy efforts are beginning to bear fruit. Christopher Waller, a
known hawk on the Federal Reserve Board, hinted at a possible interest rate cut
in July. During testimony to Congress on Tuesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell
responded to a question about rate cuts by saying, “many paths are possible.”
Later that day, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, also traditionally hawkish, suggested
a rate cut could come as early as next month. Both Waller and Bowman are
Republicans. Their sudden shift in tone signals that July’s FOMC meeting could
be nothing but quiet. With Trump pushing hard for monetary easing, markets may
be underestimating the probability of a cut.
This policy shift could be the catalyst that
finally propels BTC beyond the $108,000–110,000 resistance range. A breakout
above this level may trigger a sharp acceleration toward the intermediate
target at $117,000–127,000, and potentially the longer-term target at
$150,000–175,000. Ideally, these milestones would be reached before autumn,
when the economic impact of tariffs may begin to weigh on markets.
Institutional investors are positioning for a
breakout. Spot Bitcoin ETFs — IBIT from BlackRock, FBTC from Fidelity, and GBTC
from Grayscale — reported a combined $1.42 billion in net inflows last week.
This is a strong bullish indicator, confirming that large players are bracing
for an imminent rally.
One cautionary note comes from the Bank for
International Settlements (BIS), which recently warned that stablecoins could
undermine national monetary sovereignty and therefore should not be
institutionalised. Instead, the BIS advocates for rapid tokenisation of
national currencies and the creation of a global registry to monitor national
reserves, government bonds, and commercial bank deposits. The BIS appears to be
positioning itself to manage such a registry. This stance could complicate the
legislative path for the GENIUS stablecoin act currently progressing through
the U.S. Congress.