Bitcoin (BTC) is up 1.3% this week to $96,900,
rebounding from a brief drop of 2.2% to $93,454 on Monday. The recovery was
fuelled by encouraging news on the trade war front: China’s Ministry of
Commerce announced its readiness to begin negotiations, and U.S. Treasury
Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that talks will start this weekend in
Switzerland. With both sides eager to find a compromise, markets are
anticipating constructive outcomes. Risk assets responded positively— the
S&P 500 gained 1.3%, oil prices rose 1.6%, and Bitcoin surged 2.1% to an
intraday high of $97,697.
Investors are now turning their attention to
the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on Wednesday. While no change in interest
rates is expected, Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks will be closely scrutinised
for any dovish signals that could hint at a rate cut in June. With inflation
nearing the Fed’s 2.0% target, there is room to support the economy. However,
recent strong labour market data could prompt a more cautious tone.
Market participants are hedging both
directions. Some are accumulating put options below $90,000 in case Powell
delivers a hawkish message, while bullish bets dominate, targeting BTC levels
above $99,000.
Meanwhile, institutional flows remain robust.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs—BlackRock’s IBIT, Fidelity’s FBTC, and Grayscale’s
GBTC—reported a combined $1.8 billion in net inflows last week, mirroring the
prior week's figure. An additional $674 million has flowed in so far this week,
underlining continued confidence among large investors following BTC’s breakout
above the $90,000–92,000 resistance range.
The market is now targeting the
$150,000–200,000 range, with some speculative bets even reaching $300,000 by
late June. One such position could return $484 million if successful. The most
popular strike remains $110,000, with over $550 million allocated. Given
historical post-halving dynamics, the higher-end targets may be more achievable
than they seem.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has
confirmed its uptrend by breaking and retesting the $90,000–92,000 level. The
next resistance lies at $98,000–100,000. A decisive move above this range would
reinforce the bullish outlook.