Bitcoin is drifting within a narrow range as no negative drivers seem to be emerging at the moment. But the overall forecast for Bitcoin to dive towards $10,000 per coin is intact. We may see a short spike at $18,000 where bulls would be completely exhausted just before a slide. As the market is always moving in waves, the first wave is likely to weaken the bulls and provide support to an upside spike as there could be more buying, then the next wave would create a downslide to a lower support level, and if the bulls completely run out of steam there will be nobody left to defend this level and the third wave would see a further slide downwards. This scenario is supported by the Wolfe’s bullish wave with a sweet spot below $16,100.
Investors are actively burning wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC), while holding the original BTC. The WBTC/BTC exchange rate dived below 1 with the lowest point at 0.985 amid rumours that infamous Alameda is behind the token. Rumours are based around the lack of real assets behind Alameda’s reserves which may affect the WBTC and leave it completely naked. But this presentation is totally wrong as WBTC is created only when the original BTC enters the custodian BitGo, so FTX troubles should not affect WBTC.
Onchain metrics demonstrate that holders are accumulating coins on their balances. Shrimps that have less than 1 BTC in their wallets have seen a performance growth of 96,200 coins since the crash of FTX and are now holding slightly above 1.21 million BTC or 6.3% of the total. So, the current growth is even larger than the growth accumulated after the crash of LUNA in June. Then shrimps had bought 57,500 BTC during that month.
November was not an easy month for crypto enthusiasts as the market recorded $10.16 billion losses during the last seven days only. The situation was worse in May 2021 ($14.6 billion week losses), May 2022 ($13.8 billion) and June 2022 (19.8 billion). According to Glassnode research, most newbies in the market who started investing in the fall suffered a 12% drawdown on average.
Central bankers across the globe are fighting for their currencies in order to make them stronger. Governments are mostly interested in making their imports less expensive, primarily energies. But the Federal Reserve (Fed) has many more resources at its disposal to strengthen the Greenback instead. Some Fed members suggest that a slowdown in monetary tightening may only happen in 2024, and not in 2023 when investors are expecting. As long as borrowings in U.S. Dollars remains expensive, there are minor chances to see a rally in the crypto market, especially in the light of the recent crypto crashes.