S&P 500 broad market futures are rising by
0.22% to 6,251 points this week. The benchmark climbed even higher on Thursday,
reaching 6,290 points to mark a new all-time high. However, U.S. President
Donald Trump disrupted the momentum with a series of controversial tariff
announcements. In response to
criminal proceedings against former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who
faces accusations of attempting a coup, Trump imposed 50% import tariffs on
Brazil. This move is widely seen as an unacceptable
intrusion into another nation’s internal affairs.
The American president also reignited trade
tensions with Canada, threatening new 35% tariffs and suggesting an increase in
general tariff levels from 10% to 15–20%. On top of that, he proposed a 50% levy on copper imports, a puzzling
decision considering copper’s essential role in electrical manufacturing. Such
a move would raise domestic copper prices and complicate U.S. efforts at import
substitution. Traders are growing wary of these
unpredictable actions, which they recognise as part of a familiar pattern:
Trump threatens first, then steps back and negotiates.
Despite the geopolitical noise, the S&P
500 remains on track toward its extreme target zone of 6,350–6,450 points,
fuelled by momentum and the upcoming start of U.S. corporate earnings season.
Macro data releases have largely been ignored, as the Federal Reserve maintains
a neutral stance ahead of July. Inflation data for June, due next Tuesday, may
finally provide some direction.
Large investors continue to participate in the
rally. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) reported net inflows of $2.83
billion this week. While not signaling the start of a massive buying spree, it
suggests institutional players are riding the momentum toward the projected
highs.
Technically, the S&P 500 remains close to
its extreme target range of 6,350–6,450 points. The index is currently testing
resistance at 6,250–6,270. In the coming week, resistance is expected to shift
higher to 6,350–6,370, potentially opening the path toward the upper end of the
target. Immediate support is seen at 6,150–6,170.
In the oil market, Brent crude prices have
slipped toward the $67.00–$69.00 per barrel support zone. So far, prices have
not closed firmly below this level, which increases the likelihood of a rebound
toward $76.00–$78.00. OPEC+’s plan to raise production by 548,000 barrels per
day starting in August had little immediate effect, suggesting underlying
market strength. However, a confirmed break below support could push prices
down to the $57.00–$59.00 range.
Gold prices remain in a holding pattern. After
failing to break below the critical support at $3,230–$3,250 per troy ounce,
prices have bounced toward $3,330–$3,350. This reinforces the view that the
market is entering a summer consolidation phase that could last until
mid-August. A breakout from the $3,250–$3,450 range may come later, with deeper
downside only likely if a firm close below $3,230 occurs.
In the currency market, the U.S. Dollar is
gradually recovering. The delay of the trade tariff deadline to August 1 offers
support. The EURUSD remains vulnerable to a pullback toward the 1.15000–1.15500
zone, having already reached its extreme target range of 1.18000–1.19000. With
current levels near 1.16860, a stronger downward correction appears
increasingly likely.