International Energy Agency (IEA): World oil demand is forecast to increase by 720 kb/d in 2025

World oil demand is forecast to increase by 720 kb/d in 2025. This is marginally below last month’s estimate, as weak 2Q25 deliveries in the United States and China undercut resilience elsewhere. 

Growth in 2026, at 740 kb/d, will be held back by a challenging economic outlook and the uptake of clean energy technologies.

Global oil supply rose by 330 kb/d in May to 105 mb/d, 1.8 mb/d above a year ago. 

Monthly gains were evenly split between non-OPEC+ and OPEC+ as the producer alliance started unwinding some voluntary production cuts. 

World oil supply is projected to rise by 1.8 mb/d to 104.9 mb/d in 2025 and by 1.1 mb/d in 2026, led by non-OPEC+ gains of 1.4 mb/d and 840 kb/d, respectively.

Refinery throughputs are forecast to rise by around 460 kb/d in both 2025 and 2026, to average 83.3 mb/d and 83.7 mb/d, respectively. 

Refining margins in May were at their highest levels since 1Q24. However, the rally in crude prices in early June squeezed profitability levels as gasoline, naphtha and fuel oil cracks weakened.

Global oil stocks rose for a third consecutive month, by 32.1 mb in April to 7 717 mb, led by builds in crude oil inventories in the non-OECD. 

While global stocks built by 1 mb/d on average since February, total inventories remain 90 mb lower y-o-y. 

OECD industry stocks fell by 9 mb to stand 97 mb below a year ago. Preliminary data show global oil inventories surged in May.