The Swiss government has lowered its economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 due to rising global trade tensions and weaker export prospects. GDP growth is now expected at 1.3% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, down from previous projections of 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively—both well below the long-term average of 1.8%.
According to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), heightened uncertainty over international trade and economic policy continues to weigh on global and domestic outlooks. The early strength in 2025 GDP was largely driven by exporters accelerating shipments ahead of new U.S. tariffs. However, growth is expected to slow sharply through the rest of the year.
While domestic demand and low inflation (0.1% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026) should support the economy, exports and business investment are projected to weaken further in 2026. Unemployment is forecast to rise slightly to 2.9% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026.
Risks remain tilted to the downside. A worsening of trade disputes or financial market instability could further dampen growth, while an easing of global tensions or fiscal stimulus in major economies could offer some upside. Nonetheless, caution prevails, and the Swiss franc may face upward pressure if geopolitical risks intensify.