Weekly Focus: Amazon, the Fed, Apple and Nonfarm Payrolls

S&P 500 broad market index futures edged up by 0.3% to 5114 points, marking a continuation of the previous week's momentum. This past week saw the benchmark's strongest performance since October 2023, a significant rebound following a 6% correction. However, it's crucial to differentiate between a robust rebound and sustained growth.

The standout drivers behind this rebound were the strong Q1 2024 corporate reports from Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOG). Despite weakening PMIs in the U.S. during April and a disappointing Q1 GDP, investors responded with a muted reaction. U.S. 10-year Treasuries yields ticked up to 4.66% from 4.62%, reaching 4.74% at one point last week. Meanwhile, expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in June, July, and September plummeted according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Although March PCE indexes exceeded consensus, they failed to significantly impact the stock market.

These trends suggest that investors may be holding off on buying stocks, possibly waiting for better prices. While building positions ahead of the summer holidays might seem unwise, it's a possibility. However, purchasing without substantial investor participation could merely result in a rebound before another correctional wave in the stock market.

This week is brimming with significant events. Amazon (AMZN) kicks off Tuesday with its Q1 2024 earnings report, followed by the Fed's meeting results on Wednesday. Apple (AAPL) will unveil its Q1 2024 earnings report on Thursday, while April Nonfarm Payrolls numbers will wrap up the trading week on Friday. For the market to maintain its upside momentum, AMZN and AAPL must deliver strong results. The Fed's meeting could be precarious, given rising inflation and a declining American economy, potentially requiring a hawkish stance to curb inflation. However, Nonfarm Payrolls data could offset the hawkish Fed if the labor market shows signs of cooling, particularly if the report falls below consensus.

From a technical standpoint, the S&P 500 index remains within a downside formation, with targets at 4800-4900 points and extreme downside targets at 4400-4500 points. Resistance has shifted higher to 5040-5060 points, signaling strength, with the nearest resistance at 5090-5120 points and support at 4890-4920 points. Continued correction could make a downside scenario with extreme targets the baseline trend.

Oil prices are currently consolidating within the range of $87.00-92.00 per barrel of Brent crude, with the path to $100 per barrel currently blocked. Downward pressure is expected to continue until mid-May, with support located at $81.00-83.00 per barrel.

Gold prices, having reached mid-term upside targets at $2000-2100 per troy ounce and extreme targets at $2400-2500, remain intact. However, consolidation is expected, as prices are already quite high. The nearest support is at $2290-2310, with resistance at $2390-2410 per ounce.

The Greenback has experienced volatility, notably after the Bank of Japan intervened when the USDJPY hit 160.00, causing a retreat to 154.22. The EURUSD remains around 1.07100, continuing its trajectory towards 1.05000 despite weak macroeconomic data in the United States.