Weekly Focus: The Oil, the U.S. Retail Sales, and Mr. Powell

The S&P 500 broad market index failed to close last week above 4030 points keeping its downside trajectory within the 3500-3600 target within the coming weeks. However, the index hooked the important level at 4000 points, leaving a minor window for a rebound open.

This rebound may continue as the index climbs above 4070 points. If it gets a grip on this level for a while, the S&P 500 may climb to 4150-4250 points or even to 4500-4600 points. Whether or not investors use this opportunity does not really matter as part of short positions which have been opened at 4480-4530 points are now acting as a hedge from this possible rebound and the 4070 points landmark is an indicator to close these positions.

The Federal Reserve‘s (Fed) Chief Jerome Powell may play a key role at the Wall Street Journal conference on Tuesday in supporting the market.

The basic scenario suggests that the U.S. stock market may have a chance for a strong rebound this summer while plunging in autumn. This rebound may start at either 3800-3900 or at 3500-3600 points. Large hedge funds are more inclined towards the second option, but this inclination could be wrong this time.

The oil market is taking another spin as European officials are still debating a ban on Russia’s oil. Germany stands by the ban, while Hungary is opposed. Meanwhile, Brent crude prices hit the upper margin of the resistance zone of $112-115 per barrel. This may be considered as an insight for major market players about EU’s final decision and it may also create perfect upside timing. So, it is likely that crude prices may continue to go up above $115 per barrel, and the extreme scenario for Brent crude prices to reach $160-180 per barrel may begin at any moment.

Gold prices found the bottom at $1780-1800 per troy ounce and are now heading for a resistance at $1840. Any further upside movement to $1940 or to $2000 per ounce are in serious doubt. So, it is better to seek for short entry points around $1840 level.

The strengthening of the Greenback has stopped. The EURUSD pattern is now sending signals of a rebound. However, the pair is still moving in the downside pattern and no long entry points have been seen yet.

GBPUSD is on the strong upside with the first target at 1.26000-1.26700. The pair has surged above 1.24600 not leaving much time for fair judgement. So, now it is not better to wait for a correction to 1.23300-1.23500 to look for buy opportunities.