Ekonomické zprávy

Asian session review: the US dollar is showing negative dynamics

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
06:00GermanyGfk Consumer Confidence SurveyMay-27.3-25.9-24.2

During today's Asian trading, the US dollar declined moderately against major currencies, offsetting yesterday's increase and returning to a 2-week low, while investors prepare for the publication of important US data that will help assess the state of the economy.

The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) fell by 0.20% to 105.65. As for the data, the US GDP report for the 1st quarter will be published today, and tomorrow the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, will be released. According to forecasts, GDP growth slowed to 2.5% QoQ from 3.4% QoQ in the 4th quarter, and the core PCE price index rose by 2.6% per annum in March after an increase of 2.8% per annum in February. Economists said that resilient U.S. economic data suggests any surprises are likely to be on the upside, potentially lifting the dollar and U.S. yields further. Fed policymakers have said in recent weeks that they should not rush to lower interest rates, and they need to wait for additional evidence of a weakening economy before moving on to easing policy. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 17.0% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed meeting in June, and a 42.7% probability of a rate cut in July.

The yen fell 0.2% against the US dollar, to 155.63. Having traded in a tight range over the past few days, the dollar finally broke above the 155 yen level for the first time since 1990 in the previous session, heightening concerns about Japanese government interventions. At the same time, experts doubt that the government will take any measures before the end of the meeting of the Bank of Japan, the results of which will be announced tomorrow. Overall, the Central Bank is expected to leave policy parameters and bond purchases unchanged. According to experts, continuing expectations of a gradual tightening of monetary policy and a low final interest rate make it difficult for the yen to strengthen significantly, even if it is at historically low levels. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said earlier this week that the central bank would raise interest rates again if trend inflation accelerates towards its 2% target as expected.

Podívejte se také