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27.03.2024

European session review: EUR advances as euro-area members’ flash March CPI estimates start rolling in

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
09:00SwitzerlandCredit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations)March10.2-1411.5
10:00EurozoneEconomic sentiment index March95.596.196.3


EUR appreciated against most of its major rivals in the European session on Wednesday as investors turned their focus to the flash March inflation estimates from the euro area's major economies.

Spain, the Eurozone’s fourth-largest economy, reported this morning that its preliminary estimates showed that the country’s consumer price index (CPI) increased 3.2% YoY in March, up from February's six-month low of 2.8%. This was in line with economists’ expectations. Meanwhile, the core CPI, which strips out energy and some food costs, rose 3.3% YoY, easing from 3.5% YoY in February. As measured by the harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) - the preferred inflation gauge of the Europan Central Bank, consumer prices rose by 3.2% YoY in March, accelerating from 2.9% in February. Economists had forecast a 3.3% YoY gain. 

The latest Spanish data did not force the markets to change their view on the ECB’s interest rates. They continue to see the first 25-basis-point rate reduction to be approved at the June meeting. Overall, three rate cuts are expected from the ECB this year.

The block’s other major economies will announce their preliminary CPI readings later this week (France, Italy) and at the beginning of April (Germany).

The flash CPI figures for the entire Eurozone will be released next Wednesday, April 3rd, and are expected to show the headline inflation rate slowed to 2.5% YoY this month from 2.6% in February.

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