Ekonomické zprávy

Asian session review: the US dollar is showing negative dynamics

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
07:00GermanyGfk Consumer Confidence SurveyApril-28.8-27.9-27.4

During today's Asian trading, the US dollar declined slightly against major currencies, which was caused by partial profit-taking after the recent rally, as well as correction of positions by investors ahead of the publication of important US economic data.

The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) fell by 0.06% to 104.17, after falling by 0.18% yesterday. As for the data, in the coming days investors will receive reports on durable goods orders, the final estimate of GDP for the fourth quarter of 2024 and weekly statistics on initial jobless claims. However, the key event of this week will be the publication of the February report on personal income and expenses of Americans (it will be released on Friday, when the stock markets of the United States and many European countries will not work due to Good Friday). This report includes the core personal consumption expenditure price index, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator. Economists expect the index to rise by 0.3% compared to +0.4% in January. On an annual basis, the index is expected to show an increase of 2.8%, unchanged from January. This will confirm that the path to normalizing price growth will be long and bumpy. Recently, economists have been overly optimistic in their estimates of inflation. Meanwhile, unexpectedly high price pressure indicators forced Fed Chairman Powell to repeat his statement that monetary policy easing will occur when the Central Bank is confident of a steady decline in inflation. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see an 8.0% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed meeting in May, and a 69.7% probability of a rate cut in June (compared to 59.1% a week earlier), with about 80 basis points of cuts priced in for this year - much lower than the 160 or so that had been priced in at the start of the year.

The yen rose 0.1% against the U.S. dollar as Japanese government officials continued their attempts to support the currency. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said today that he does not rule out any measures to combat the weakening of the yen, repeating the warning of Tokyo's chief currency diplomat made the day before. 

Podívejte se také