Ekonomické zprávy

IEA predicts a slowdown in oil demand growth in 2024

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said that in 2024, oil demand will grow by 1.3 million barrels per day, which is 1 million barrels per day less than in 2023. However, the IEA revised its previous forecast by +110,000 barrels per day, citing a delay in oil supplies due to the tense situation in the Red Sea.

"The approaching easing of monetary policy by central banks indicated a path out of economic doldrums, but subdued economic data in China remains a concern, while the settling down of post-pandemic turbulence and a cloudy economic outlook will weigh on demand," the IEA said.

"Oil demand growth will continue to depend heavily on non-OECD countries, even though China's dominance is gradually weakening," the IEA said, adding that in 2024, China's oil demand growth is likely to slow to 0.62 million barrels per day from 1.7 million barrels per day.

"World oil production is projected to fall by 870,000 barrels per day in 1Q24 vs 4Q23 due to heavy weather-related shut-ins and new curbs from the OPEC+ bloc. From the second quarter, non-OPEC+ is set to dominate gains after some OPEC+ members announced they would extend extra voluntary cuts to support market stability. Global supply for 2024 is forecast to increase 800,000 barrels per day to 102.9 million barrels per day, including a downward adjustment to OPEC+ output," the IEA said.

"Global observed oil inventories surged by 47.1 million barrels in February. Offshore stocks dominated gains as seaborne exports reached an all-time high and shipping disruptions through the Red Sea tied up significant volumes of oil on water while onshore inventories declined. Global stocks plunged by 48.1 million barrels in January, with OECD industry stocks at a 16-month low," the IEA added.

The IEA also warned that if OPEC+ members continue to voluntarily reduce production until the end of 2024, there will likely be a small shortage in the oil market.

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