Ekonomické zprávy

NIESR: UK’s economy forecast to grow 0.3 per cent in Q1

National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) announced on Wednesday that it now sees the UK’s GDP to expand by 0.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2024, remaining broadly consistent with the longer-term trend of low, but stable, economic growth in Britain. NIESR’s latest first-quarter growth projection remained unchanged compared to its forecast in January. 

NIESR also noted that today’s ONS data, suggesting that the British GDP increased 0.2 per cent m-o-m in January 2024, was better than its previous forecast of a 0.1 per cent m-o-m advance. In the three months to January, Britain’s economy contracted by 0.1 per cent q-o-q, matching NIESR’s previous projection. 

According to NIESR updated estimates, the UK’s GDP will likely be flat m-o-m in February and rise 0.1 m-o-m in March.

Commenting on the latest report, NIESR’s associate economist Paula Bejarano Carbo noted that in broader terms, UK economic growth has been near-zero since 2022 and GDP per head remains lower than pre-COVID. “To escape the low-growth trap, structural changes are needed, such as an increase in public investment, particularly in infrastructure, education and health – which would also support growth in business investment," she added.

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