Ekonomické zprávy

UK economy grew in line with forecasts in early 2024

Data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that the economy expanded by 0.2% in January, offsetting the December drop (-0.1%). Economists also expected GDP growth of 0.2%.

Services output grew by 0.2% in January 2024 and was the largest contributor to the rise in GDP, following a fall of 0.1% in December 2023, with 9 of the 14 subsectors experiencing growth in January 2024. But in the three months to January 2024 services output showed no growth, with 6 of the 14 subsectors declining over this period. The largest contribution to the 0.2% growth in services in January was wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, which saw a 1.9% growth on the month, following a 1.9% fall in December. Production output fell by 0.2% in January, and in the three months to January production output also fell by 0.2%. Economists had expected production output to remain unchanged in January. Manufacturing showed no growth in January, with growth in 7 of the 13 subsectors offset by falls in the other 6 subsectors, after growth of 0.8% in December. Construction output grew by 1.1% in January 2024, but in the three months to January 2024 construction output fell by 0.9%. Output in consumer-facing services grew by 0.6% in January, following a fall of 0.8% in December 2023. The largest positive contribution in January came from retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles, which grew by 3.4%.

Meanwhile, from November to January, real GDP fell by 0.1% compared to the previous three-month period (through October). Services output showed no growth in this period, while production output fell by 0.2% and construction output also fell, by 0.9%.

In annual terms, GDP fell in January by 0.3%, as expected, after stagnating in December. GDP is estimated to have fallen by 0.2% in the three months to January 2024 compared with the three months to January 2023.

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