The latest poll of professional economists, conducted by Reuters between March 5 and 11, found that the majority of them see June as the most likely month for the first cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve.
According to the poll, 72 of 108 economists (or nearly 67%) polled by Reuters expect the Fed to approve its first rate decrease at its June 11-12 meeting. The notion generally aligns with the markets' view, seeing a 70% probability of the first cut in June.
Meanwhile, 17 (16%) said May and 19 (18%) said July or later.
The poll also showed that 52 of 108 economists (48%) foresee cuts of 75 basis points or less for this year, while 26 (24%) foresee cuts of 100 basis points.
However, 38 of 44 economists (86%) warned about the growing risk that fewer cuts may appear in the Fed's dot plot from the upcoming March 19-20 meeting. In the December 2023 dot plot, the Fed's policymakers indicated they expect to cut interest rates three times by 25 basis points in 2024.