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European session review: EUR appreciates with Germany’s economic data in the spotlight

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
07:00GermanyGDP (QoQ)Quarter IV0.0%-0.3%-0.3%
07:00GermanyGDP (YoY)Quarter IV-0.3%-0.2%-0.2%
09:00GermanyIFO - Current Assessment February86.986.786.9
09:00GermanyIFO - Expectations February83.58484.1
09:00GermanyIFO - Business ClimateFebruary85.285.585.5

EUR firmed against most of its major rivals in the European session on Friday as investors assessed a slew of data from Germany, the euro area’s largest economy.

The Federal Statistical Office reported its final estimates confirmed that Germany’s economy entered a technical recession in the second half of 2023 as the country’s GDP contracted 0.2% YoY in the fourth quarter of the year, following a 0.3% YoY decline in the previous quarter. On a QoQ basis, the German economy decreased 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2023 after two consecutive quarters of stagnation. Both the annual and quarterly readings were in line with the preliminary estimates and economists’ expectations. 

Meanwhile, ifo Institute’s survey revealed a marginal improvement in sentiment among German companies in February. The ifo business climate index increased to 85.5 points early this month from 85.2 points in January, reflecting slightly less pessimistic expectations. The February uptick in business morale matched economists’ forecasts.

Elsewhere, the European Central Bank’s latest Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) showed that inflation expectations for the one year ahead edged up to 3.3% in January from 3.2% in the previous month, while inflation anticipations for the next three years remained unchanged at 2.5%. The CES also found a slight improvement in perceptions of the region’s economic growth over the next year. The Eurozone’s consumers in January saw a 1.1% decrease in the economy over the next 12 months, better than a 1.3% drop in the previous survey.

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