Ekonomické zprávy

Asian session review: the US dollar is showing negative dynamics

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
07:00GermanyGDP (QoQ)Quarter IV0.0%-0.3%-0.3%
07:00GermanyGDP (YoY)Quarter IV-0.3%-0.2%-0.2%

During today's Asian trading, the US dollar declined slightly against major currencies, while market participants expect new catalysts that will help the currency break out of its recent range.

The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) fell by 0.08% to 103.88. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) due next week may be the next major release to provide clues for Fed policy. Yesterday, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said he would review a wide range of economic indicators to make sure that it was time to cut interest rates. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs' analysts said that they no longer expect an interest rate cut in May and see four 25 basis point cuts this year, as policymakers' rhetoric suggests they are in no rush. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 21.0% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed meeting in May, and a 64.7% probability of a rate cut in June, with approximately 80 basis points of cuts priced in for this year.

The Chinese yuan declined slightly against the US dollar, which was caused by China's data. The report showed that in January, new home prices fell by 0.7% per annum, accelerating compared to December (-0.4%). It was the seventh straight month of drop and the steepest pace since March 2023. On a monthly basis, new home prices fell by 0.3%, after a 0.4% decline in December which was the deepest fall since February 2015.

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