Ekonomické zprávy

Asian session review: the US dollar is showing negative dynamics

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
01:30AustraliaRetail Sales, M/MApril0.4%0.2%0%
05:00JapanLeading Economic Index March98.2 97.7
05:00JapanCoincident IndexMarch98.7 98.8
06:00United KingdomRetail Sales (YoY) April-3.9%-2.8%-3%
06:00United KingdomRetail Sales (MoM)April-1.2%0.3%0.5%
06:30SwitzerlandNon Farm PayrollsQuarter I5.398 5.389
06:45FranceConsumer confidence May838483

During today's Asian trading, the US dollar declined slightly against major currencies, which was caused by partial profit-taking after a three-day rally. However, the US dollar continued to receive support from expectations of the Fed maintaining high interest rates for a longer time. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now see a 40.1% chance of a 0.25% rate hike at the next Fed meeting in June (versus 36.4% the day before) and a 59.9% chance that they will remain unchanged (versus 63.6% yesterday). Meanwhile, expectations that the Fed will begin cutting rates later this year have been scaled back.

The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) fell by 0.16% to 104.09. However, the index remains near the highest level since March 17.

Investors also continued to follow the negotiations on raising the US debt ceiling. Urgent talks appeared to move closer to a deal Thursday, with only seven days to go before the US faces an imminent threat of debt default. But negotiators warned that the final phase of talks would likely be the most delicate and difficult for both sides.

The pound rose 0.25% against the US dollar, partly supported by data from the UK. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that retail sales increased by 0.5% in April, partially offsetting the March decline of 1.2% (revised from -0.9%). Economists had expected a 0.3% increase. Over the last three months (through April), retail sales increased by 0.8% compared to the previous three months. This was the strongest growth since August 2021, when sales increased by 1.3%. The data also showed that, in annual terms, retail sales fell by 3% in April after a 3.9% decline in March (revised from -3.1%). Consensus estimates suggested a 2.8% drop.

The Chinese yuan rose 0.4% against the US dollar, retreating from a near 6-month low, as some major state-owned banks sold the U.S. currency to prevent the yuan from sinking further.

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