USD/CAD Price Analysis: Sellers remain hopeful as 100-DMA tests rebound

• USD/CAD licks its wounds near five-week low but the key moving average, MACD signals favor sellers.
• 200-DMA lures short-term bears, further downside hinges on 1.2530 break.
• Daily closing beyond 1.2800 will reverse the latest bearish signals.

USD/CAD struggles to carry the corrective pullback from a multi-day low during Thursday’s Asian session, retreating from an intraday high near 1.2650 by the press time.

The loonie pair bounced off 50% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of October-December upside earlier in Asia but the 100-DMA challenges the recovery moves. Also favoring the sellers are the bearish MACD signals.

That said, a clear break of the stated Fibo. level surrounding 1.2625 becomes necessary for the USD/CAD sellers to aim for the 200-DMA, near 1.2570 at the latest.

However, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and an upward sloping trend line from late October 2021, respectively around 1.2545 and 1.2530, will challenge the pair’s further downside.

Meanwhile, a successful break of the 100-DMA, close to 1.2650, will aim for the 1.2700 threshold and multiple swings around 1.2750.

It’s worth noting that the quote’s upside past 1.2750 hinges on how well the USD/CAD pair manages to cross the 1.2800 threshold, comprising 23.6% Fibo.

USD/CAD: Daily chart

Trend: Further weakness expected