- USD/TRY takes the bids to print the biggest daily gains in a week.
- Turkish President’s spokesman said diplomats from Russia, Ukraine were less likely to meet on Wednesday.
- Market sentiment dwindles as Biden bans Russian flights from US airspace, DXY stays firmer.
USD/TRY gains over 1.0% while rising to $14.08 ahead of Wednesday’s European session.
The Turkish lira (TRY) pair’s latest gains could be linked to an increase in the US dollar’s safe-haven demand amid a lack of clarity over the diplomatic negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv, which failed earlier in the week.
“Turkish Presidential Spokesman Ibrahim Kalin said on Tuesday that Ukrainian and Russian delegations were unlikely to meet for planned talks on Wednesday, adding Moscow's demands to end its invasion were ‘unrealistic’,” per Reuters.
The diplomat adds, "It will most likely be postponed a couple of days, we are in touch with the negotiating teams."
Also contributing to the US dollar’s safe-haven demand is the US President Joe Biden’s first State of the Union (SOTU) speech. The Democratic leader banned Russian airplanes from the US horizons during early Wednesday but sounds hopeful to overcome inflation fears. It’s worth noting that Biden’s comments over “self-reliance” also gained cheers and might have underpinned the greenback.
Additionally, firmer prints of the US ISM Manufacturing and firmer US inflation expectations, as measured by the 10-year breakeven inflation rate per the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data.
Amid these plays, the US 10-year Treasury yields reverse the early Asian gains to revisit the 1.71% level but the S&P 500 Futures rise 0.20% intraday at the latest.
Looking forward, Turkish Exports for February and US ADP Employment Change for the said month will join Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s bi-annual testimony to decorate the calendar. These macros/events have recently gained more importance due to receding bets on a faster pace of rate hikes.
Above all, headlines concerning Russia and Ukraine will be more important for the near-term trade direction.
Technical analysis
Sustained trading beyond the 10-DMA level of $13.82 again directs USD/TRY to $14.64-66 region, including tops marked during early December 2021 and late February 2022.