AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Bullish pennant looms, targets 2021 yearly high around 86.00

• The Australian dollar trims some of Monday’s gains, down 0.19%.
• AUD/JPY would be significantly influenced by market sentiment and headlines around the Russia-Ukraine crisis.
• AUD/JPY Technical Outlook: The AUD/JPY is upward biased, but DMAs closing to the spot price might change the bias to “neutral-upwards.”

After rallying to 83.86 fresh weekly high, the Australian Dollar retreats blamed a market mood shift. At the time of writing, the AUD/JPY is trading at 83.29, down 0.19%.

The market sentiment is downbeat. Russia-Ukraine crisis does not appear to abate. Instead, tensions arise, as a Ukraine intelligence official reported 300 Belarussian tanks near the border of Ukraine-Belarus. Financial markets were caught off guard, sending oil prices to new YTD highs above the $100 mark, while global yields plummeted, led by US Treasuries.

The AUD/JPY immediately dropped from 83.52 to 83.14 (40-pip) due to that news.

AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The AUD/JPY trades below the weekly high, reached on March 1 83.86, though is above February 7 high at 83.33, previous resistance-turned-support. Furthermore, an ascending triangle has formed, usually a bullish pattern, but it would need an upward break above the top-trendline around 84.00, once broken, would target October 21, 2021, high at 86.25.

That said, AUD/JPY’s daily moving averages (DMAs) remain below the spot price. However, it’s worth noting the closeness to the exchange rate, keeping the pair’s bias as “neutral-upwards” instead of just upwards.

The AUD/JPY’s first resistance would be March 1 daily high at 83.86. Once cleared, the next resistance would be January 5 high at 84.30, followed by 85.00, and October 21, 2021, high at 86.25.