Investors Take Cover in Safe Haven Instruments

Markets are finishing the week on a positive note while S&P 500 boar market index renewed its all-time highs at 4100 points. Other stock indices are rising too as Nasdaq gained 2% and industrial Dow Jones – around 0.8%.

But the positive mood is just limited to stock markets while others are seen reluctant. Brent crude prices are struggling around $63 per barrel and may plunge any time soon. The U.S. Dollar is mixed vs G7 currency basket, although it should rather weaken as stocks are rallying. The yields on U.S. Treasuries are going down and should support positive sentiment in the market. But, together with rising gold prices and strengthening Japanese Yen such markets are seen slightly overwhelmed. Just as if investors are rushing from risky assets to safe haven instruments, and U.S. stock market is running on inertia.

And, all this is happening just before corporate reporting season. Next week U.S, banks are starting the season with promising strong results. What will be the reaction of the stock market on these reports is very unclear.

So far no new macroeconomic signals for the stock market rally were seen this week. PMI reading in G& countries are rising, but it could be an euphoria of purchase managers driven by vaccination process and stimulus measures globally. If we look at the macroeconomic data in Japan, households spending in February are down by 6.6% vs -6.1% a month before. Unemployment level in Eurozone remains the same at 8.3% despite positive expectations.

FOMC Minutes published this week showed no new information and there is nothing more left this week to boost market volatility. March PPI readings in the U.S. are expected to rise by 3.8% vs 2.8 in February, but this information is already priced in.

The S&P 500 broad market index may try to make another upside movements to 4110 points, but this would be its maximum limit this week.

Crude oil perform consolidation as Brent crude prices are squeezed between the support level at $62.50 per barrel and the resistance at $63.7. Crude reserves data this week were positive for the prices as EIA recorded a decline of crude reserves by 3.5 million barrels, well above expected 1.4 million barrels. However, overall market uncertainty and rumors of negotiations over Iran nuclear deal curb prices.

Gold prices rose above $1750 per ounce breaking through the upper margin of the wide trading range that was seen recently for quite a long period. Prices are supported by declining yields on U.S. Treasuries with 10-year bond yield declining to 1.62%. U.S.-Russia tensions over Ukraine is also waving support for gold. Nevertheless, gold prices need to consolidate above $1750 per ounce to climb further.

Currencies are mixed as the EURUSD is close to its resistance level at 1.19400, where sell positions would be interesting to open with the target at 1.15300.

The GBPUSD has already bounced from the resistance level at 1.39200 and returned to the levels seen at beginning of the week at 1.37400 with a perspective do fall to 1.35100.

The USDJPY plunged to 109.00 and is likely to continue its slide towards the support level at 106.50.