The results of a Reuters survey of 44 economists conducted from May 3 to May 8 showed that consumer prices in India probably rose by 4.8% per annum in April after an increase of 4.85% per annum in March. Although overall inflation has slowed in recent months, food prices - a key component of the CPI - remain elevated, negatively impacting household budgets. Earlier, the Central Bank of India warned that food prices continue to pose an additional risk to the inflationary trajectory. According to official data, annual food inflation was 8.52% in March, below 8.66% in February mainly due to prices for vegetables. Overall, economists believe that consumer inflation will remain around 5% or even rise in the next few months.
Meanwhile, a separate survey showed that CPI growth is likely to return to the Central Bank's target (4%) in the next quarter. As for the prospects for the RBI's monetary policy, economists expect the start of a rate cut cycle in the 3rd quarter of 2024, but warn that India's high economic growth and expectations that the US Federal Reserve will postpone its first rate cut may force the RBI to begin easing monetary policy at a later stage - in the 4th quarter or even at the beginning of 2025.