ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) results showed that consumer expectations for inflation in 12 months have not changed compared to November, while 3-year inflation expectations have increased slightly.
The Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) is a monthly online survey of currently around 14,000 adult consumers (i.e. aged 18 or over) from six euro area countries: Belgium, Germany, Spain, France, Italy and the Netherlands. The results are used for policy analysis and complement other data sources used by the ECB.
The ECB said that average expectations for inflation over the next 12 months remained at 5.0%, while average expectations for inflation for three years ahead rose from 2.9% to 3.0%. Meanwhile, the average level of estimated inflation over the previous 12 months remains at 9.9% for the third month in a row.
Consumers also expected their nominal income to grow by 1.0% over the next 12 months, up from 0.9% in November. The perception of nominal spending growth over the previous 12 months also increased to 6.4%. Meanwhile, expectations of economic growth for the next 12 months continued to grow markedly, increasing from -2.0% in November to -1.5%. In line with higher expectations of economic growth, expectations regarding the unemployment rate for the 12 months ahead decreased markedly - to 11.9% from 12.4% in November.
In addition, consumers expected that the growth of prices for their homes over the next 12 months will continue to fluctuate around 3.0%. Expectations for mortgage interest rates for 12 months ahead remained stable, at 4.8%, which is 1.5 percentage points higher than at the beginning of 2022.