| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 06:00 | Germany | Retail sales, real adjusted | May | -0.6% | 0.5% | -1.6% |
| 06:00 | Germany | Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y | May | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.6% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | GDP, q/q | Quarter I | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | Business Investment, q/q | Quarter I | -1.9% | 5.8% | 3.9% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | Business Investment, y/y | Quarter I | 1.8% | 8.1% | 6.1% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | GDP, y/y | Quarter I | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.3% |
| 08:00 | Eurozone | M3 money supply, adjusted y/y | May | 3.9% | 4% | 3.9% |
| 08:00 | Eurozone | Private Loans, Y/Y | May | 1.9% | 2% | 2% |
| 08:30 | United Kingdom | Consumer credit, bln | May | 1.944 | 1.1 | 0.859 |
| 08:30 | United Kingdom | Mortgage Approvals | May | 60.66 | 59.75 | 63.03 |
| 08:30 | United Kingdom | Net Lending to Individuals, bln | May | 1.17 | 4.1 | 2.9 |
EUR traded mixed against other major currencies in the European session on Monday as investors weighed flash consumer price index (CPI) figures from Italy and Germany's major states, awaiting the release of the preliminary CPI data for the euro area as a whole on Tuesday.
National Institute of Statistics (Istituto Nazionale di Statistica, ISTAT) reported that its preliminary estimates showed that harmonised inflation in Italy, the Eurozone’s third-biggest economy, increased 1.7% YoY in June, matching May’s gain. Economists had expected it to accelerate to 1.8% YoY.
Meanwhile, flash inflation reports from major federal states of Germany pointed to mixed inflation trends, with rates falling in Bavaria (to 1.8% YoY from 2.1% YoY May) and North Rhine-Westphalia (to 1.8% YoY from 2.0% YoY), increasing in Baden-Wuerttemberg (to 2.3% YoY from 2.2% YoY) and Saxony (to 2.4% YoY from 2.3% YoY), and holding steady in Brandenburg (at 2.2% YoY) and Hesse (at 2.3% YoY).
The release of Germany’s flash national inflation rate is scheduled at 12:00 GMT and is expected to reveal a rate of 2.2% YoY, up marginally from 2.1% YoY in May.
Today’s data followed the flash CPI figures from France and Spain, the Eurozone’s second and fourth-biggest economies, which showed slight rebounds in their national inflation rates in June.
Overall, the recent national June CPI reports justify the European Central Bank’s belief that the disinflation process in the Eurozone remains on track.
The preliminary June CPI figures for the entire region are set to be published on Tuesday. Economіsts predict the headline inflation rate at 2.0% YoY, up slightly from 1.9% YoY in May, and the core inflation rate at 2.4% YoY, up marginally from 2.3% YoY.
The ECB vice president de Guindos called the euro area’s latest inflation figure positive, adding that the central bank’s rate policy is compatible with convergence to the 2% inflation target.