Bitcoin (BTC) is down 0.3% this week, trading
at $107,078. The benchmark cryptocurrency is recovering from a 2.3% decline on
Tuesday, when it briefly dipped to $105,186. Its ability to rebound without
testing the deeper support zone of $98,000–$100,000 suggests underlying market
strength, with the price now gravitating back toward the key resistance area of
$108,000–$110,000.
The recent dip came amid renewed trade
tensions. U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated his unwillingness to extend
the trade negotiation deadline beyond July 9. Talks with Japan and the European
Union remain at a standstill, and Trump has threatened to impose higher tariffs
next week if no progress is made. These trade concerns appear to be the main
factor holding back Bitcoin’s rally. If the deadlock resolves, a breakout above
resistance could follow swiftly — even sooner than expected under more
optimistic scenarios.
Adding to market optimism, the U.S. Senate
approved a $4.0 trillion tax and social spending cut package on July 1. The
bill now awaits approval from the House of Representatives, with Trump pushing
for it to pass before Independence Day on July 4. This fiscal stimulus has already fuelled
bullish sentiment in risky assets, sending the S&P 500 to a fresh
all-time high. Bitcoin has also clawed back most of its Tuesday losses and is
now hovering near weekly gains. If the bill reaches the president’s desk by
Friday, a breakout through the $110,000 barrier could materialize quickly.
From a historical
perspective, June typically brings moderate gains for Bitcoin, averaging a 3.0%
increase. This year, the month has so far delivered only a
1.5% rise, implying potential for further upside before July begins. Notably,
July has historically been a stronger month, with an average return of 9.0%.
Given the current setup, BTC could reach $116,000–$118,000 before June ends.
Large investors continue to bet on further
gains. Bitcoin ETFs — including BlackRock’s IBIT, Fidelity’s FBTC, and
Grayscale’s GBTC — recorded fresh inflows totaling $1.20 billion last week.
This follows several weeks of robust buying, highlighting institutional
confidence in the market’s near-term outlook.
The $108,000–$110,000 resistance level is
likely to be surpassed in July. Once cleared, Bitcoin could accelerate toward
the next technical target of $117,000–$127,000, and ultimately towards
longer-term goals in the $150,000–$175,000 range. Ideally, this move will
unfold before autumn, ahead of any deeper impact from geopolitical or
tariff-related risks.