Bitcoin (BTC) rose 0.3% to $105,027 this week,
holding close to the key resistance zone of $108,000–110,000 despite an
aggressively negative news backdrop. On June 13, Israel launched an attack on
Iran, sending oil prices up 11.5%. Fears of an extended hawkish U.S. monetary
policy resurfaced, with S&P 500 index futures falling 1.8%. Bitcoin dropped
to $102,612 after trading near $110,000 just days earlier.
Tensions in the Middle East continue to
escalate, although some hope for diplomacy emerged on Monday. French President
Emmanuel Macron claimed Donald Trump had left the G7 summit early to focus on
brokering a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Bitcoin responded with a 3.9%
rebound to $108,853. However, the U.S. president refuted Macron’s statement,
saying the French leader didn’t know the real reason behind his departure. On
Tuesday, Trump convened a National Security Council meeting and demanded Iran’s
unconditional surrender, a signal often preceding military announcements.
Following this, Bitcoin fell below Monday’s
opening level, down to $103,300. Yet no official decision was made on Tuesday,
and all attention has now turned to Trump’s upcoming speech. If he confirms
U.S. involvement in the military strikes, oil could surge again, and risky
assets, including Bitcoin, may face fresh sell-offs, possibly pushing BTC below
$100,000. However, this scenario is not the baseline.
Technically, Bitcoin appears to be completing
a consolidation phase within the $100,000–110,000 range. A breakout to the
upside would set the next target between $117,000–127,000. This outcome would
likely require signs of de-escalation or a clear diplomatic route.
Alternatively, if Trump confirms non-involvement in the conflict, Bitcoin could
remain range-bound before resuming its upward trajectory.
The second major factor is the Federal
Reserve’s upcoming decision on interest rates. The FOMC will meet on Wednesday,
and while markets previously expected neutral or dovish commentary due to weak
retail sales and modest inflation, the recent oil spike gives the Fed reason to
lean hawkish — a potential drag on risky assets like crypto.
Despite geopolitical and monetary headwinds,
there are bullish developments for the crypto sector. The GENIUS stablecoin act
has passed the Senate and now moves to the House of Representatives. Once
approved, it will go to Donald Trump for signing. Meanwhile, Trump Media is
preparing to launch its own ETF, which has already secured $2.5 billion in commitments.
Interestingly, this fund will invest in Ethereum (ETH) rather than Bitcoin
alone, helping to explain the recent surge in ETH whale activity. According to
Glassnode, current whale behavior mirrors patterns from the 2017 bull market.
Large institutional investors are also
stepping back into the market. Spot Bitcoin ETFs from BlackRock (IBIT),
Fidelity (FBTC), and Grayscale (GBTC) saw $829.9 million in inflows last week,
followed by another $273.2 million this week, more than reversing recent outflows.
This consistent dip-buying by large players is a strong bullish signal.
Bitcoin now needs to break above the
$108,000–110,000 resistance range to confirm the beginning of a larger rally
towards $150,000–170,000.