Bitcoin (BTC) is down 0.6% this week to
$103,593 after briefly rising by 1.5% to $105,825 on Monday, its highest level
since January 30 and close to the all-time high of $109,974. Despite this
pullback, BTC remains above the crucial $98,000–100,000 resistance range, which
it recently broke through and retested successfully. The retreat appears to be
technical in nature, likely due to profit-taking and a reset in leveraged
positions, as reflected by $1.45 billion in recorded losses during the decline.
Market sentiment remains broadly positive
following the first round of renewed U.S.–China trade talks held in
Switzerland. Both nations agreed to a 90-day truce and lowered tariffs to 30%
on Chinese imports into the U.S. and 10% on U.S. goods entering China. Additionally,
China has allowed its airlines to resume purchases of Boeing aircraft. These
developments have fuelled optimism across global markets, with U.S. stocks
hitting their highest levels since February 2024. This trade truce gives the
crypto market a window of opportunity through mid-August to sustain momentum,
although the lack of a concrete trade agreement leaves room for renewed
volatility later in the year.
Institutional interest in crypto remains
strong. Spot Bitcoin ETFs — including BlackRock’s IBIT, Fidelity’s FBTC, and
Grayscale’s GBTC — saw $1.2 billion in net inflows last week, following $1.88
billion over the prior two weeks. An additional $335.9 million flowed in at the
start of this week. These consistent inflows are supporting market strength and
even fuelling speculation about ultra-bullish targets, including BTC reaching
$300,000 by the end of June.
Investor attention is now focused on the
upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. U.S. inflation
unexpectedly dropped to 2.3% year-over-year in April, the lowest since February
2021, despite Powell’s earlier warnings about rising inflation. Former
President Donald Trump has urged immediate rate cuts, putting additional
pressure on the Fed to respond to the improving inflation outlook. A dovish
shift in Powell’s tone could further support risk assets, including
cryptocurrencies. On the other hand, if Powell continues to cite trade-related
inflation risks, markets may react more cautiously.
Technically, Bitcoin’s recent performance confirms
a strengthening bullish trend. After breaking through the $98,000–100,000
resistance and retesting it from above, the path is open for a rally toward the
next key level at $108,000–110,000. A successful breakout here would further
solidify the case for a broader move toward $150,000–200,000 in the coming
months.