Ekonomické zprávy
05.06.2023

US bond yields are showing positive dynamics

The yield on US Treasury bonds rose moderately, while market participants continue to analyze US data and their impact on the prospects for the Fed's monetary policy.

The yield on 5-year Treasury bonds rose by 4.6 basis points, reaching 3.888%, while the yield on 30-year bonds was 3.923% (+4.0 basis points). Meanwhile, the yield on 2-year Treasury bonds, reflecting expectations of short-term interest rates, increased by 3.4 basis points to 4.537%, while the yield on 10-year bonds increased to 3.735% (+4.2 basis points). The curve between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 2-year yield remains inverted, sending a warning that the economy may be falling or has already fallen into recession. Now the gap between 10 and 2 year U.S. debt is 80 basis points.

Recent US economic data have raised questions about whether the rate hike has had the desired effect on economic activity and inflation. The US Department of Labor said on Friday that the nonfarm payrolls increased by 339,000 in May, exceeding expectations (+190,000) and accelerating compared to April (+253,000). Despite the high hiring rate, the unemployment rate rose to 3.7% from 3.4% in April (53-year low).

Today investors will focus on the ISM Non-Manufacturing index for May, which will be published at 14:00 GMT. The ISM services index briefly slipped below the 50-threshold designating expansion from contraction late last year, but has since been in expansion the past four months. Data continues to signal that services sector activity is broadly holding up, and experts expect the ISM services index to increase to 52.3 in May from 51.9 in April.

Podívejte se také